Why Did The Dishman Pharma Stock Fall by 14%?

Dishman Pharma hit a new low yesterday as they plummeted by more than 14%, the biggest single-fall since 24th August. The prime reason behind this sudden fall is because of the request made by FDA on one of it’s customers, Clovis Oncology, for more data on their awaited drug, Rociletinib, which is supposed to help treat lung cancer patients. Dishman’s Swiss subsidiary, Carbogen Amcis, was to make the API (Active Pharamaceutical Ingredient) for Clovis.

FDA asked for more data confirmed responses(tumor shrinkage) in the clinical programme using Rociletinib. Clovis has been highlighting combined response rates – that is, both confirmed and unconfirmed responses to the drug – in its public stats, but apparently FDA will only look at confirmed responses. The stats point to a confirmed response rate of 28% in 79 patients using 500mg dose and a 34% confirmed response rate in 170 patients using 625mg dose of rociletinib, competitor AstraZeneca’s Tagrisso’s confirmed response rate is 59%.

Clovis shares fell 70% in the US on Monday, and a further 11% on Tuesday. Monday’s fall must have spooked investors and took it out on Dishman.

How did Dishman Pharma take the hit because of Clovis Oncology?

Read more at http://capitalmind.in/2015/11/why-did-dishman-pharma-stocks-fall-by-14

Chart: Nifty’s Aggregate Profit Growth Goes Negative, For Three Consecutive Quarters of Contracting Profits

The NSE’s Nifty has 50 companies. That index is the top 50 companies in India by market-capitalization (technically, free-float market cap, meaning shares that aren’t owned by the promoters)

If you add up the revenues and profits of these companies, and you compare the aggregate numbers with the aggregates of the previous year (of the same companies), you see how the performance is of the Index as a whole. Given that revenues and profits tend to be skewed towards the bigger producers, this does skew the index towards the biggies – for instance, an ACC has a quarterly profit of just Rs. 100 cr. or so, while TCS has a quarterly profit of over Rs. 6,000 cr.

However, the aggregate numbers will usually smooth out any smaller issues, and is a useful way to look at the index as a whole.

The problem? Well, we’ve had three lousy quarters now, of falling profits, and of falling revenues.

Read more at http://capitalmind.in/2015/11/chart-niftys-aggregate-profit-growth-goes-negative-for-three-consecutive-quarters-of-contracting-profits

Maintain ‘buy’ on Apollo Tyres, target Rs 240: Kotak

Apollo Tyres announced the acquisition of 100% stake in Germany based tyre retailer, Reifencom, for 45.6 million euro (at 0.3X FY2014 revenues). Reifencom is a profitable and zero-debt entity, operating 37 retail stores and an online portal, accounting for ~4% market share in the replacement segment of Germany’s passenger car tyre market.

The acquisition will provide better market access to Apollo’s European operations and its ‘Apollo’ branded tyres, in our view.We continue to remain positive on the growth prospects of Apollo’s European operations, expecting it to significantly scale-up its presence in the next 3-5 years.

Retain ‘buy’ on Havells India, target Rs 304: Nomura

The second quarter numbers of Havells India missed at the topline but EBITDA was in line on higher margin. 2H outlook appears robust on reviving infrastructure spend and upcoming festive demand.

The second quarter numbers of Havells India missed at the topline but EBITDA was in line on higher margin. 2H outlook appears robust on reviving infrastructure spend and upcoming festive demand. Increased industrial demand is likely to translate into stronger sales not only in wires and cables but also in switchgears where EBIT margins are likely to be sustained. This is likely to lead to increased sales and better EBIT margins.

Stronger infrastructure spending has led to increased demand for electrical wires and cables with industrial volumes up 16% y-y and domestic volumes up 4% y-y. Overall segment revenue was lower owing to lower commodity prices.

Increased industrial demand is likely to translate into stronger sales not only in wires and cables but also in switchgears where EBIT margins are likely to be sustained. This may lead to increased sales & better EBIT margins.

Revenue decline is attributable to: a) a 1.3% decline y-y in switchgears, b) cables and wires falling by 5% y-y despite volume growth of 16% and 4% in industrial and domestic segments owing to weaker commodity prices; c) lighting and fixtures growth (1.5% y-y) being muted as LED growth (+48% y-y) was offset by decline in CFL volumes; and d) electrical consumer durables growing at c6%.

Factories running 30% below capacity: Rajan

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) governor, Raghuram Rajan, said the economy was being hampered by a drop in public and private investments but held out hope that strong foreign capital flows would help rectify this weakness.

Weak capital investment has been a hurdle in India’s quest to realise its growth potential and with factories running 30 per cent below capacity, private companies are in no rush to invest in new projects.

“On the growth front, the central concern is with investments,” said Rajan, who was speaking at a business event in Hong Kong on Friday. “Private investment has fallen back quite a bit and so has public investment.”

RBI has cut its growth forecast for the current financial year to 7.4 per cent from 7.6 per cent previously, well below the government’s target of eight to 8.5 per cent, but still faster than China.

Despite the slowdown in growth and investments, Rajan said strong foreign direct investment (FDI) and some traction in infrastructure development could encourage private investments.

During the period from January to June, FDI flows into India rose to $19.4 billion, up 30 per cent from a year earlier, a sign of what the government called investors’ growing confidence in the country.

Earlier this month, India eased foreign direct investment norms in 15 major sectors, including mining, defence, civil aviation and broadcasting.

“We are seeing a lot of traction in FDI, in both announcements and actual investments on the ground,” Rajan said.

“Once we start seeing a little stronger demand, we will start seeing more projects being pulled out of the drawer.” The central bank cut the benchmark policy rate by a half percentage point to 6.75 per cent in September, after months of pleading by government leaders and industrial groups for more stimulus to stoke growth.

India poised for one of highest growth in emerging Asia: OECD

Boosted by an improved business environment, Indian economy is projected to see "one of the highest levels" of growth among emerging Asian countries, a report by Paris-based think tank OECD said today.

Boosted by an improved business environment, Indian economy is projected to see “one of the highest levels” of growth among emerging Asian countries, a report by Paris-based think tank OECD said today.

While projecting an economic expansion of 7.2 per cent for this year and 7.3 per cent next year for India, OECD noted that large non-performing loan is a potential barrier to continued growth.

“Real growth in Emerging Asia is projected to average 6.5 per cent for 2015 and 6.2 per cent annually over 2016-20. Growth will continue to slow in China while remaining strong in India at one of the highest levels in the region,” the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said.

Emerging Asia refers to economies of Southeast Asia, China and India.

For the 2016-20 period, India’s average real GDP growth is anticipated to be 7.3 per cent, it said.

NIFTY weekly charts

- nifty trading within falling / sloping channel
- breakout from this channel will be bullish
- lower end of channel hints at support around 7200-7400
- holding above 7950 will be bullish

Market outlook

- trend is down on daily charts
- close above 7860 AND near day's highs will be bullish
- today markets opened strong but we saw selling off day's highs
- advance decline positive
- option writing not giving any clues

NIFTY futures intraday charts

- breakout from initial trading was bullish
- note I did not consider day's range as markets were close to a swing low in prev day's chart
- cover longs around 7900 F
- short trade not considered as broader trend was breaking out upwards

When to sell a stock (fundamental view)

Most investment gurus tend to find selling much harder than buying. As Sanjoy Bhattacharya, the founding CIO of HDFC Mutual Fund, says in Chapter 1 of my book, Gurus of Chaos, 'Selling is well and truly the dark continent of investing.' So, I thought I would take a stab at how I, as a broker, identify high-conviction sells.

Let's now turn to the more effective selling rules. Firstly, it makes sense to sell a stock when you can see that the competitive moat around that company is eroding. For example, for more than a decade after Maruti entered the Indian market, Hindustan Motors, the manufacturer of the now obsolete Ambassador car, was a Sensex company. Even after the opening up of the Indian economy in 1991, investors did not figure out that this company's moat was going to be eroded by economic liberalisation. I reckon investors face a similar risk in Indian banking, housing finance and NBFC stocks, given that the RBI is now whacking out new banking licences by the dozen.

Secondly, it makes sense to sell, I believe, when a company's capital allocation is deteriorating.

Read more at https://www.valueresearchonline.com/story/h2_storyview.asp?str=29407

Elliott Wave Levels and Targets of Nifty for 20 Nov 2015

Deepak Kumar | November 19, 2015

Nifty opened huge gap up today at 7788 and declined marginally till 7765 but traded with huge strength for rest of the day to register day’s high of 7854 before closing 110 points up at 7842.

I suggested in yesterday’s report to exit any shorts if Nifty break above 7776 and wait for corrective decline to enter longs and we can expect upside targets of 7860-7930. Nifty opened above 7776 at 7788, gave a corrective decline till 7765 and bounced till 7854 almost achieving minimum target of 7860. Let’s have a fresh look on latest charts.

Today I am showing Elliott wave counts only after 16 Nov low 7714 as previous counts are same as I explained in my yesterday’s report Nifty EW Analysis for 19 Nov 2015 – Perfect Example of 3-3-5 Flat Correction.

Read more at http://sweeglu.com/elliott-wave-levels-and-targets-of-nifty-for-20-nov-2015/

Damage of six years has been reversed in a matter of a year: Ridham Desai

Morgan Stanley’s head of India research says competitive federalism has emerged as the NDA‘s biggest contribution to the nation as states put in place critical reforms to attract investments.

Singapore: Competitive federalism has emerged as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government’s biggest contribution to the nation as state governments put in place critical reforms such as land and labour law changes to attract investments, said Ridham Desai, managing director and head of India research, Morgan Stanley, in a recent interview on the sidelines of a conference organized by the investment bank in Singapore. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has enlarged the revenue share of states and given them greater independence in decision making, which Desai traces to Modi’s experience as chief minister of Gujarat. 

Read more at http://www.livemint.com/Money/5hdJzS9d66mG6xZXe39fdK/Damage-of-six-years-has-been-reversed-in-a-matter-of-a-year.html

Havells India: light at the end of the tunnel?

Shares of Havells India Ltd, a maker of lighting products, cables and fans, have rallied since it announced earnings last week, outperforming the broader markets. The rally was on the back of expectations of better demand during the festival season and a pickup in infrastructure spending.

The company management, during the conference call with analysts, said it expected decent growth in the second half of the fiscal year as there was some traction seen in demand in the past two months.

Domestic brokerage firm Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd in a note dated 9 November estimates 13-15% revenue growth in the second half of FY16 because of a low base, following muted 1% growth in the first half of the fiscal year.

Read more at http://www.livemint.com/Money/jce2CcXKLyC207z7r76NeI/Havells-India-light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel.html

Forget the Nifty, make your own index, says Porinju Veliyath

You have tweeted that one should make his or her own Nifty or own index. How many stocks should you put into that?

I love a 10-stock portfolio. We have around 650 clients and the average number in a portfolio will be 10 stocks — you can say it is a concentrated portfolio. Following the Nifty is easy and anybody can do it. You don’t need any special skill or expertise or knowledge or wisdom. In the last one year, the Nifty is down 6-7 per cent, my clients on an average are making over 40 per cent return. I am not a Nifty fan. I am making my own index.

All serious investors who want to pursue value investing, should make their own portfolio — the development in those companies, the progress in those companies, how they are managed and how they are creating wealth for you — that’s the only thing important for you.

Read more at http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/forget-the-nifty-make-your-own-index-says-porinju-veliyath/article7896736.ece

Norms relaxed as only 400 gm gold deposited

In the fortnight since the gold monetisation scheme was launched, only 400 gm gold has been deposited and with only one bank, as no other bank had tripartite agreements with hallmarking centres and gold refiners. Now, the finance ministry and the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) are simplifying the administration of the scheme to get it moving.

In contrast, the response to gold bonds and coins has been much better. A government source said retail investors had applied for Rs 100 crore worth of bonds and 6,000 gold coins had been sold.

The gold monetisation scheme, bonds and coins were launched on November 5 by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to reduce bullion imports and mobilise 22,000 tonnes of idle gold in the country.

Read more at http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/norms-relaxed-as-only-400-gm-gold-deposited-115111900849_1.html

Forget IIP data, Inflation Data or Interest Rate - Just see Toilet Data of India

Don’t See IIP ,Inflation Data or Interest Rate ,Economy !Just see Toilet Data of Bharat (Not of India )

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If the 774 million people living without a household toilet in India stood in line, they would stretch from the Earth to the moon, and maybe beyond, a report released to mark World Toilet Day showed Thursday.

Clearing the line would take at least 5,892 years, if each person took a minimum of four minutes to use the toilet, according to the report by WaterAid, a water and sanitation nonprofit headquartered in London said.

India continues have the largest number of people without toilets at home and the highest number of people defecating in the open, the report titled, “It’s No Joke: The State of the World’s Toilets 2015,” says.

More than 770 million people in India still don’t have access to improved home toilets, more than double China’s 329 million people who don’t have a toilet in their house.

Read more at http://www.anirudhsethireport.com/dont-see-iip-inflation-data-or-interest-rate-economy-just-see-toilet-data-of-bharat-not-of-india/

Top gainers analysed

ENGINEERS INDIA up 11%

Market outlook

- trend is down on daily charts
- trend reversal level is 7865 spot
- close above 7865 and near day's high will be bullish
- advance decline positive today
- VIX drops by 9% today

NIFTY futures intraday charts

- breakout from initial trading range was buy signal
- cover around 7830 F
- ignore arrows - this is some system I am working on for a friend

Indians Refuse To Give Their Gold To The Government: Only 30 Kilograms Take Part In "Gold Monetization Scheme"

One week after the gold scheme's official launch, the "gold monetization" plan has been a disaster with a laughable 30 kilograms in gold tendered by the people from physical into "government-backed" form.

The Times of India has the details, and reports that in the first-week "collection by the government's sovereign gold bond scheme has been rather tepid with less than Rs 10 crore being reported to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The scheme, which closes on November 20, allows investors to purchase between 2 and 500 grams of gold-equivalent.

The spin was immediate: "bankers say that in any issue, savvy investors - including high net worth individuals - usually hold off until the closing date before locking in their funds." Or maybe they don't lock in their funds at all since giving the government your physical gold in exchange for a interest payment - in other words, converting gold into a paper asset with the government's blessing - is about as stupid as it gets.