Has demonetization been a failure?

Demonetisation has worked beautifully for the PM and the ruling party. But what about the economy?

The objective of demonetisation was to
- reduce black money/ corruption
- fake currency/ stop terrorism / naxalism financing
- bring windfall gains of Rs.400,000 crores to the government
- increase tax revenues

Status
- corruption has not come down
- terrorism / naxalism continues as before - infact it is worse now.
- entire money (or more?) returned back to RBI so no windfall gain to govt.
- pindrop silence from RBI and govt on how much money has come back
- only 12300 crores tax collected versus expected 100,000 crores.
- this means black money was converted to white at a very nominal cost.
- unorganised sector hit very badly/ yet to recover.

Further rationalisations - cashless economy or go digital blah blah. Everything now is back to pre-demon days.

Read more at https://scroll.in/article/836854/so-how-did-that-demonetisation-thing-work-out-for-you

Trading signals

LAST updated: 09-MAY-2017 

Buy signals: ABB - APOLLOHOSP - ASTRAMICRO - ATLANTA - BLS - BLUESTARCO - CEATLTD - CENTRALBK - CENTURYTEX - CGPOWER -CHENNPETRO - CYBERMEDIA - DALMIABHA - DLF - FINPIPE - GANECOS - GEOJITFSL - GET&D - GODREJCP - HDIL - HONAUT - IBVENTURES - IDFC -JKCEMENT - JKIL - JKLAKSHMI - KAYA - KEI - LTI - MANINDS - MASTEK - MOLDTKPAC - MONNETISPA - NRAIL - PNBGILTS - PRECWIRE -PRIMESECU - PUNJLLOYD - RAMCOCEM - RECLTD - SDBL - SEAMECLTD - SIEMENS - SOTL - STERTOOLS - SUPRAJIT - TAKE - VLSFINANCE -

Sell signals: BEML - CRISIL - KWALITY - TITAN -


NOTE: All signals based on kplswing indicator. Click on stock name for trading possibilities.

 

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed flat
- AD was flat, VIX down 5%
- option writing support 9300

Swing trading signals :: 08-MAY-2017

• This report is for educational purposes only and is not recommended for trading or investment.
• Liquidity filter: ||||| excellent liquidity - ||||| good liquidity - ||||| low liquidity.

Stock name	Close	Percentage Change		Signal	Reversal Level/ SL	Last Month's
		1 day	20 days			High	Low
||||| ADFFOODS	254.70	7.50%	45.50%	BUY	169.00	225	169
||||| ADVENZYMES	2031.65	-0.50%	-4.00%	SELL	2224.90	2225	2045
||||| AJANTPHARM	1582.10	-3.00%	-9.00%	SELL	1820.20	1820	1630
||||| AJMERA	237.40	4.00%	7.50%	BUY	211.05	234	204
||||| AMBUJACEM	260.75	5.50%	7.00%	BUY	235.55	253	235
||||| ANANTRAJ	66.80	9.50%	28.50%	BUY	49.70	66	48
||||| ANSALAPI	28.85	9.50%	55.00%	BUY	18.45	28	15
||||| APLLTD	585.10	-1.00%	-5.50%	SELL	644.00	644	602
||||| ASTRAL	586.15	7.00%	3.50%	BUY	526.50	580	526
||||| BANKBEES	2300.05	0.50%	5.00%	BUY	2161.00	2260	2161
||||| BHUSANSTL	85.70	11.50%	45.50%	BUY	58.00	82	57
||||| CESC	979.45	3.50%	16.50%	BUY	827.65	949	828
||||| CGPOWER	76.60	-1.50%	-3.50%	SELL	82.20	82	77
||||| CHAMBLFERT	119.00	4.50%	36.50%	BUY	83.20	101	83
||||| EICHERMOT	26919.45	4.00%	5.00%	BUY	25321.10	26500	25321
||||| ESSELPACK	274.05	5.00%	16.50%	BUY	230.55	259	231
||||| FSL	38.80	-2.00%	-8.00%	SELL	45.45	45	40
||||| GANESHHOUC	126.35	7.50%	24.00%	BUY	93.30	117	85
||||| GATI	131.35	-2.50%	-7.00%	SELL	144.85	145	132
||||| GILLETTE	4814.55	9.00%	14.50%	BUY	4113.15	4355	4113
||||| HEXAWARE	249.65	4.00%	18.00%	BUY	199.25	234	199
||||| IBREALEST	170.20	12.00%	86.50%	BUY	86.65	164	87
||||| ICICIBANK	302.95	1.00%	7.50%	BUY	265.20	292	265
||||| KAJARIACER	690.50	2.00%	12.00%	BUY	598.50	676	587
||||| MPHASIS	587.75	4.50%	4.50%	BUY	521.55	580	522
||||| NIITTECH	489.05	3.50%	15.00%	BUY	419.25	474	419
||||| NITINSPIN	139.05	3.50%	9.00%	BUY	124.50	138	121
||||| PCJEWELLER	446.30	3.50%	2.50%	BUY	411.85	445	412
||||| PGHH	7822.85	5.50%	6.00%	BUY	7260.25	7635	7260
||||| QUESS	825.85	1.00%	13.00%	BUY	707.10	814	683
||||| RAMASTEEL	157.50	4.00%	19.00%	BUY	127.50	151	128
||||| RCF	90.70	4.50%	11.50%	BUY	79.60	89	79
||||| SHREYANIND	195.20	1.50%	36.00%	BUY	147.15	192	137
||||| SREINFRA	110.05	6.00%	32.00%	BUY	82.00	93	82
||||| TATACOFFEE	133.10	2.50%	4.50%	BUY	123.50	130	124
||||| TRIL	390.50	-5.00%	-7.00%	SELL	475.90	476	403
||||| ULTRACEMCO	4426.25	2.00%	7.50%	BUY	3926.00	4275	3926
||||| VIJAYABANK	88.55	7.00%	26.00%	BUY	67.20	83	67
||||| WALCHANNAG	161.55	9.00%	5.00%	BUY	144.05	160	144

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed 0.3% in positive
- markets continue to remain/ trade in a range.
- AD was 2:1, VIX down 3%

Neowave outlook for market

...pattern implication for a Double Top is calculated on the basis of height of the pattern, which is the distance from the 2 Tops to the low made between these 2 tops.

In the present case, both the tops were near 30184 and the low between these tops was at 29804. The difference of 380 Sensex pts can, therefore, be projected downwards from 29804, as a pattern implication of the Double Top. This would project about 29425 for Sensex (9173 for Nifty).

Remember, again, that the downward pattern implication discussed above, is a possibility to be considered only when the low of 29804 (Nifty 9269) is decisively broken on the downside, with higher volumes.

This contention would also mean that holding last week’s bottom or the gap-up area created on 25th April could deny the -ve implications of the suspected Double Top.

....If the suspected Double Top confirms, then such a pattern could turn out to be a major top, provided Sensex also unfolds the following 2 events : (1) “faster retracement” below starting point of “g” at 29241 (Nifty 9075) (2) “lower top lower bottom” formation.

The action for the fresh week, as seen from the perspective of the discussion above, would appear crucial not only for our structural choice, but also for the medium term direction of the market.

Read more at http://content.icicidirect.com/ULFiles/UploadFile_201758101417.asp

Nifty can Bounce Sharply above 9377 for New High Again

Nifty opened higher at 9374 and registered all time high 9377 but failed to stay at higher levels and declined sharply just after opening and traded with negative bias for rest of the day. Nifty declined to register day’s low 9272 before closing 74 points down at 9282.

Yesterday, 9323 was fresh stoploss for longs and bounce towards 9380-9449 was expected in coming days. Also suggested to hold Nifty longs taken in 9275-9257 range with fresh stoploss 9323 expecting same targets 9380-9449. Nifty bounced till 9377 (03 points short of minimum target) and then declined to trigger stoploss of 9323 on Friday. Let’s have fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

Read more at http://sweeglu.com/nifty-can-bounce-sharply-above-9377-for-new-high-again/

Stigmergy - interesting concept/ process

Stigmergy is a consensus social network mechanism of indirect coordination, through the environment, between agents or actions.

The principle is that the trace left in the environment by an action stimulates the performance of a next action, by the same or a different agent. In that way, subsequent actions tend to reinforce and build on each other, leading to the spontaneous emergence of coherent, apparently systematic activity.

Stigmergy is a form of self-organization social network. It produces complex, seemingly intelligent structures, without need for any planning, control, or even direct communication between the agents. As such it supports efficient collaboration between extremely simple agents, who lack any memory, intelligence or even individual awareness of each other.

Hot stocks and charts

LAST updated: 05-MAY-2017 

Simple rules

• This information is for your study only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
• Consider trend as UP when a stock gives a breakout above last month's high
• To lock in gains, use a trailing SL (last month's low or last 2-3 weeks low)
• Expect half the trades to (statistically) fail so manage the risk management in every trade
• Limit risk per trade to maximum of 1% of your capital
• In case of narrow ranges, consider the bigger / previous trading range as breakout levels
• Pay attention to large bar breakout days or one day large reversal bars.

ABAN

BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is up on daily charts
- signs of selling at higher levels
- support 22000

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, markets closed 0.5% in positive
- AD was flat, VIX down marginally
- option writing support jumps to 9300

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed flat
- AD was slightly negative
- option writing support 9000 resistance 9500

Nifty can Bounce Towards 9380-9449 in Coming Sessions

Nifty opened higher at 9339 and bounced to register day’s high 9352 but failed to sustain at higher levels and declined by more than 80 points from day’s high to register day’s low 9369 before closing 9 points up at 9313.

Yesterday, same 9257 was the reversal point and stoploss for all longs and sharp bounce towards 9406-9470 was expected in coming days. Suggested to buy Nifty if trades above opening price at 9:31 AM OR buy positional if decline towards 9275-9257 using stoploss of 9549.

Nifty was trading around opening price (in 9338-9342 range, not clearly above opening price). So, if someone bought at 9:31 AM may have loss of 15-18 points but Nifty declined further in 9275-9257 range and positional buying levels triggered. Nifty bounced from 9275-9257 range (from 9269) and closed at 9313. Let’s have fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

Read more at http://sweeglu.com/nifty-can-bounce-towards-9380-9449-in-coming-sessions/

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed flat
- markets trading in last 3 days high low... so today's movement can be ignored
- AD was flat but VIX jumped 5%
- option writing support 9000

Neowave outlook of market

Despite this, and despite Index reaching within tolerance area to our target of 30500 (Nifty 9400), and PE touching “Bubble Territory”, Index still maintains “higher top higher bottom” formation since Dec’16, which defines an UP-trend as per Dow Theory.

Dow Theory, remember, is the most successful chart reading method in the entire history of Technical Analysis. Change to DOWN-trend will happen when we actually see a first set of “lower top lower bottom”.

Index is not only maintaining an UP trend, but is also seen retracing the “falling” segments in “faster” time. The 6-7 days long “b” & “d” legs were retraced in 2 days. The 6-day long “f” leg was retraced in 5, and the 11-day long b-leg of “g” was retraced in 3.

By NEoWave, completion of upward structure will be “suspected” when the rallying segments start getting retraced in faster time, and this is yet to happen.

Under the circumstances, for us to begin exploring -ve options, we require the current pause from the end of last week to stretch beyond 2-3 days. Else, we cannot rule out +ve efforts.

Read more at http://content.icicidirect.com/ULFiles/UploadFile_201752104345.asp

Negative divergence persists on RSI

Let's see how long this lasts... As of now, bulls are winning.

Not expecting bears to short as no crucial support is broken.

So this fight is more between the price and some indicator. Market players seem to be ignoring this.

NSE advance decline chart

- advance declines not supporting rally
- some positivity in April is negated now

CNX IT charts

- trend is down on daily charts
- resistance 10200 support 9900

BANKNIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- support 21200-20300

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up on weekly charts
- immediate support 9000