There are no brave old people in finance.

So part of what benefited us was that we’re risk-averse.

I have a saying: There are no brave old people in finance.

Because if you’re brave, you mostly get destroyed in your 30s and 40s.

But if you make it to your 50s and 60s and you’re still prospering, you have a very good sense of how to avoid problems and when to be conservative or aggressive with your investments.

-said Blackstone Chairman, Steve Schwarzman

SILVER technicals

- trend is down on weekly charts
- sustaining above 44000 is bullish
- immediate support 38000

GOLD technicals

- trend is down on weekly charts
- sustaining above 30000 will be bullish
- support 28000

BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is up on daily charts
- immediate support 23000 - 22400

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed flat
- AD was flat
- nifty swing low 9300

The great Indian hope trick

India’s growth story is so compelling, investors are willing to ignore years of flat and even declining earnings in the hope that the elusive growth will come about at some point in the future.



Read more at http://www.livemint.com/Money/XIVdcLAtMgXCXh36O59oxL/The-great-Indian-hope-trick.html

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed flat
- AD was slightly positive (9:7)
- swing low support 9300

NIFTY can triple over next 5 years

Ridham Desai of Morgan Stanley believes that it’s the technology stocks that could well turn out to be the dark horse for Indian markets. The India equity head of research and managing director at the global investment bank told BloombergQuint that higher capital spending by American corporates will more than compensate for the visa hurdle that Indian I.T. companies have been facing lately.

While the “structural story is still bad”, there could be a surprise waiting, he said on the sidelines of the Morgan Stanley 19th India Summit.

Benchmark Indian equities, already at record levels, are set to head even higher, said Desai. Indian stocks are one of the biggest gainers of “secular global bull run” that’s underway, he added.

Here are some of other key takeaways from Desai’s conversation with BloombergQuint.

• Nifty could triple over the next five years
• There will be enough corrections en route for people to invest
• Consumer, infrastructure and financial sectors will drive growth
• Prefer private banks over public sector lenders
• GST will cause some short-term pain, for small and medium enterprises

Read more at https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/2017/06/06/technology-could-be-the-dark-horse-says-ridham-desai

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed 0.4% in the red
- AD was 1:2
- swing low support 9300

Expert talks/ ideas from the Sohn India Conference

At the 2nd Annual Sohn India Investment Conference, top investors regionally and around the world will convene for a day of fresh market insights. India’s open-ended growth lends itself to new and compelling investment ideas. Funds will go to support cutting-edge pediatric cancer care at the Tata Memorial Centre in Mumbai, recognized as one of the leading cancer centers in South Asia.

... the format of the Conference:

- Every speaker will be allotted 15 minutes
- The speaker have to give their best idea
- No Q&A

The first speaker was Raamdeo Agarwal of Motilal Oswal:

Raamdeo Agarwal’s best pick was PNB Housing Finance. He termed it a ‘Lakh Crore Ki Kahani’

• In India, there are only 27 Companies which have a market cap of more than 1L Crores.For a company to break into this elite club, there must be strong tailwinds and a long runway in place.Some such megatrends that he has seen in his career are IT Services,Private Banks,Pharma etc
• He analyzed the Company using his QGLP model.
• Its a business with secular growth drivers.India’s Mortgage to GDP is very low (9%) and level of urbanization is only 33%.Both these figures can only go up.
• The Gross NPAs in this business is only 0.8%
• For all practical purposes, it is Carlyle which owns 38% of the company is running the business.They have put in top class processes and practices.
• Raamdeo Agarwal quipped –‘I own a housing finance business myself and hence can judge the high quality and scalability of PNB’s processes’
• The management plans to double assets by 2020. Modi’s ‘Housing For All’ can create a 50L Crores Mortgage Market.
• The Company has grown at 52% CAGR in the last 4 years and increased its market share
• He expects the stock to break into the 1 Lakh Crore Club by 2024…a CAGR of 24%

The second speaker was Sunil Singhania of Reliance Mutual Fund

Read more at http://alphaideas.in/2017/06/05/notes-sohn-india-conference-2/

Swing trading signals :: 05-JUN-2017

• This report is for educational purposes only and is not recommended for trading or investment.
• Liquidity filter: ||||| excellent liquidity - ||||| good liquidity - ||||| low liquidity.

Stock name	Close	Percentage Change		Signal	Reversal Level/ SL	Last Month's
		1 day	20 days			High	Low
||||| AHLUCONT	330.35	-4.50%	-12.50%	SELL	410.00	410	342
||||| ASIANTILES	400.35	4.00%	4.00%	BUY	333.25	395	333
||||| BALAJITELE	130.85	9.00%	24.50%	BUY	104.55	125	100
||||| BALRAMCHIN	151.80	-2.00%	-3.50%	SELL	169.25	169	153
||||| BBL	1136.25	5.50%	13.50%	BUY	999.00	1128	981
||||| BIRLACORPN	913.40	2.00%	19.00%	BUY	729.00	855	729
||||| BRIGADE	271.60	6.50%	12.50%	BUY	236.90	260	237
||||| ENIL	857.85	5.00%	8.50%	BUY	709.00	834	709
||||| EVERESTIND	308.65	8.00%	17.50%	BUY	255.55	302	239
||||| FLFL	366.85	6.00%	24.00%	BUY	271.70	327	272
||||| GABRIEL	137.80	3.00%	10.50%	BUY	122.80	135	122
||||| GEOJITFSL	83.90	4.50%	23.50%	BUY	67.60	82	63
||||| GLOBALVECT	150.65	5.00%	41.00%	BUY	100.00	139	100
||||| GOACARBON	161.25	4.00%	13.50%	BUY	128.75	160	129
||||| GOLDBEES	2653.55	1.00%	3.00%	BUY	2549.05	2653	2549
||||| IBULHSGFIN	1170.15	3.00%	4.00%	BUY	1013.30	1164	1013
||||| KAMATHOTEL	56.00	4.00%	23.50%	BUY	44.60	55	44
||||| KARURVYSYA	127.00	4.00%	6.50%	BUY	112.10	123	112
||||| KAYA	1112.40	3.50%	27.00%	BUY	863.05	1110	812
||||| MANINFRA	63.05	4.00%	8.00%	BUY	52.80	62	53
||||| MCDOWELL-N	2484.95	6.00%	30.50%	BUY	1883.25	2327	1876
||||| MINDTREE	557.45	3.00%	10.50%	BUY	486.00	552	480
||||| MOTILALOFS	1128.40	1.00%	20.50%	BUY	920.05	1122	826
||||| NAUKRI	946.00	3.50%	12.00%	BUY	827.25	919	822
||||| NIITTECH	555.95	2.50%	13.50%	BUY	475.00	545	457
||||| SPAL	447.20	6.00%	12.00%	BUY	345.00	431	345
||||| SWELECTES	471.65	11.00%	26.00%	BUY	332.20	459	332
||||| TATACOMM	741.50	0.50%	13.00%	BUY	642.00	735	625
||||| TATAMETALI	720.75	5.50%	9.00%	BUY	604.00	691	604
||||| TIMETECHNO	164.10	7.50%	30.00%	BUY	120.75	146	113
||||| TITAN	551.85	16.50%	13.50%	BUY	460.10	506	460
||||| VAKRANGEE	406.45	4.00%	16.00%	BUY	345.45	367	338
||||| VINDHYATEL	812.00	5.00%	16.50%	BUY	669.40	790	669
||||| VMART	1131.55	12.00%	13.50%	BUY	921.05	1067	921

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed 0.2% in positive
- AD was marginally positive
- swing low support 9300

Neowave outlook of market

Thus, none of the Upward segment was “extended”. As per NEoWave, an “extended” segment should be 161.8% of the next largest segment. Therefore, the post-Dec’16 development does not attract any “impulsive” interpretation.

We, accordingly, provided a “Corrective” interpretation to the rally in the form of Diametric in the 1st Corrective, Flat in “x”, followed by another Diametric pattern in the 2nd Corrective.

At the same time, we also observed that each successive Upward segment hit a “higher” top. Similarly, each Downward segment ended at a “higher” bottom.

This, to us, was a sign of continued upward development. As we explained, “higher top higher bottom” defines an UP-trend as per Dow Theory, the most time-tested technical parameter to identify an UP trend.

We, therefore, argued that as long as the Index keeps making higher top as well as higher bottom, all dips would only provide buying opportunities.

We also argued that for suspecting any maturity of the post-Dec’16 rally, firstly we require faster retracement of the rallying segment, and secondly, this should be followed by “lower top lower bottom” formation.


Read more at http://content.icicidirect.com/ULFiles/UploadFile_20176510244.asp

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up on weekly charts
- immediate support 9300
- deep support 9000

BANKNIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up on weekly charts
- immediate support 22400
- deep support 20300

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed 0.4% in positive at 9653.
- AD was flat while VIX dropped 4%
- swing low support at 9300

NIFTY PE chart

NSE TRIN (Arms Index) Chart

The TRIN is a breadth indicator developed by Richard W. Arms in 1967. The index is calculated by dividing the Advance-Decline Ratio by the Advance-Decline Volume Ratio.

In general, strong market advances are accompanied by relatively low TRIN readings because up-volume overwhelms down-volume to produce a relative high AD Volume Ratio. This is why the TRIN appears to move “inverse” to the market. A strong up day in the market usually pushes the Arms Index lower, while a strong down day often pushes the Arms Index higher.

Here is the TRIN chart for NSE ... note the indicator is smoothed with a 10 day SMA.


Looking at above chart, the TRIN indicator hints at topping out of the market.

PMs and Sensex returns after 3 years and full term

Source: http://alphaideas.in/2017/06/01/pms-the-sensex/

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed flat.
- AD was flat while VIX closed 4% in negative
- swing low support 9300