Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed flat at 10332
- AD was 3:2
- option writing support 10000
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed flat at 10332
- AD was 3:2
- option writing support 10000
April 6, 2018
April 5, 2018
Market outlook
Daily charts
- trend is UP on daily charts (first time since the correction)
- today, NF gained 2% and closed at 10325
- AD was 6:1
- VIX drops 9%
- option writing support 10000
- IMPORTANT - new highs possible if Nifty can sustain above 10600 this year, otherwise new lows possible. Reason: Big H&S on weekly charts.
- the pace of the rally and volumes from here should give hints... will take lot of time though so do not ask questions.
- trend is UP on daily charts (first time since the correction)
- today, NF gained 2% and closed at 10325
- AD was 6:1
- VIX drops 9%
- option writing support 10000
- IMPORTANT - new highs possible if Nifty can sustain above 10600 this year, otherwise new lows possible. Reason: Big H&S on weekly charts.
- the pace of the rally and volumes from here should give hints... will take lot of time though so do not ask questions.
H&S pattern on NIFTY hourly charts
- neckline around 10300 (not perfect)
- right shoulder is being formed
- height of H&S is approx 300 points
- expect a move of 300 points whenever breakout happens
- right shoulder is being formed
- height of H&S is approx 300 points
- expect a move of 300 points whenever breakout happens
Bear trap of historic proportions???
There is a chance (perhaps 50/50) that a bear trap of historic proportions has been sprung.
April 4, 2018
BANK NIFTY update
- trend is down on daily charts
- index has lost 10% from its recent highs
- correction so far qualifies as a healthy correction
- very good support around 23600
- swing highs are as shown
- index has lost 10% from its recent highs
- correction so far qualifies as a healthy correction
- very good support around 23600
- swing highs are as shown
Market outlook
Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 1% in negative at 10128
- AD was 1:2; VIX increased 8%
- bearish engulfing bar was formed but
- this has less importance as prev trend was very small and
- market was rangebound for 4-5 weeks
- a lower swing high is now defined at 10300
- prev swing highs are 10500 and 10650
- option writing support 10000
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 1% in negative at 10128
- AD was 1:2; VIX increased 8%
- bearish engulfing bar was formed but
- this has less importance as prev trend was very small and
- market was rangebound for 4-5 weeks
- a lower swing high is now defined at 10300
- prev swing highs are 10500 and 10650
- option writing support 10000
April 3, 2018
Market outlook
Daily charts
- trend is down on hourly charts
- today NF closed 0.3% in positive at 10245
- AD was 3:1
- option writing support 10000 resistance 10500
- note I am getting a lot of buy signals on stocks from past 2-3 days.
- trend is down on hourly charts
- today NF closed 0.3% in positive at 10245
- AD was 3:1
- option writing support 10000 resistance 10500
- note I am getting a lot of buy signals on stocks from past 2-3 days.
Massive jump in ITRs filed
As compared to 3.79 crore ITRs filed in F.Y. 2013-14, the number of ITRs filed during F.Y. 2017-18 is 6.84 crore which marks an increase of 80.5%.
April 2, 2018
Market outlook
Daily charts
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 1% in positive at 10212
- AD was 6:1
- good chances of a trendline break
- option writing support 10000 resistance 10500
- good chances of inverted H&S forming if markets reach 10500 (neckline).
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 1% in positive at 10212
- AD was 6:1
- good chances of a trendline break
- option writing support 10000 resistance 10500
- good chances of inverted H&S forming if markets reach 10500 (neckline).
NBFCs and HFCs fear Rs 2.2-trn NPA mess owing to note ban, Rera, GST
Non-banking finance companies and mortgage lenders, which control the lion's share of developer loans, are using all the tricks in the marketing and finance trade books to help realtors still smarting from the pains inflicted by the note-ban, Rera and GST, to sell their inventory so that these lenders secure their monies.
According to a recent report, non-banking finance companies and pure-play mortgage lenders have an exposure of a whopping Rs 2.2 trillion of the Rs 4 trillion developer loans market, while commercial banks' exposure is much lower at Rs 1.8 trillion only.
These lenders fear that with so little demand in the market that is sitting on nearly 0.5 million units of unsold inventory, the chances of more and more developers going broke and their assets turning dud are higher in near future.
Read more at http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/fearing-spike-in-npas-nbfcs-hfcs-help-realtors-sell-better-118040100415_1.html
According to a recent report, non-banking finance companies and pure-play mortgage lenders have an exposure of a whopping Rs 2.2 trillion of the Rs 4 trillion developer loans market, while commercial banks' exposure is much lower at Rs 1.8 trillion only.
These lenders fear that with so little demand in the market that is sitting on nearly 0.5 million units of unsold inventory, the chances of more and more developers going broke and their assets turning dud are higher in near future.
Read more at http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/fearing-spike-in-npas-nbfcs-hfcs-help-realtors-sell-better-118040100415_1.html
April 1, 2018
Our brains are hard-wired to believe we can predict the future
Our brains are hard-wired to believe we can predict the future and make sense out of random patterns. In fact, it even, it even rewards us for doing so.
The brain of a person engaged in pattern seeking and prediction, experiences the same kind of pleasure that drug addicts get from cocaine or gamblers experience in a casino.
Thus our never ending search for patterns in the equity markets leads us to assume that order exists in the markets.
However the harsh reality is that stock markets are far more random and unpredictable than we like to admit.
The best traders know they have no idea what will happen next in the markets... so they are prepared for all possibilities. And they make money precisely because of this.
The brain of a person engaged in pattern seeking and prediction, experiences the same kind of pleasure that drug addicts get from cocaine or gamblers experience in a casino.
Thus our never ending search for patterns in the equity markets leads us to assume that order exists in the markets.
However the harsh reality is that stock markets are far more random and unpredictable than we like to admit.
The best traders know they have no idea what will happen next in the markets... so they are prepared for all possibilities. And they make money precisely because of this.
Loss aversion
Loss aversion is one reason why people lose a lot of money in the stock markets.
It refers to people's tendency to prefer avoiding losses to acquiring equivalent gains: it is better to not lose Rs.500 than to find Rs.500.
This is the reason why people hate booking losses in stock markets... the pain is too much. You will rather wait, hope, see other alternatives/ possibilities before writing off your loss (which has now grown bigger)
What distinguishes loss aversion from risk aversion is that the utility of a monetary payoff depends on what was previously experienced or was expected to happen.
It is very difficult to overcome this because humans are hardwired to be loss averse due to asymmetric evolutionary pressure on losses and gains: for an organism operating close to the edge of survival, the loss of a day's food could cause death, whereas the gain of an extra day's food would not cause an extra day of life (unless the food could be easily and effectively stored).
It refers to people's tendency to prefer avoiding losses to acquiring equivalent gains: it is better to not lose Rs.500 than to find Rs.500.
This is the reason why people hate booking losses in stock markets... the pain is too much. You will rather wait, hope, see other alternatives/ possibilities before writing off your loss (which has now grown bigger)
What distinguishes loss aversion from risk aversion is that the utility of a monetary payoff depends on what was previously experienced or was expected to happen.
It is very difficult to overcome this because humans are hardwired to be loss averse due to asymmetric evolutionary pressure on losses and gains: for an organism operating close to the edge of survival, the loss of a day's food could cause death, whereas the gain of an extra day's food would not cause an extra day of life (unless the food could be easily and effectively stored).
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