April 13, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed 0.2% in positive at 10480
- AD was flat (slightly negative)
- option writing support 10000

H&S formation
- we are at neckline now
- notice slower pace of rally as the 'head' part is getting completed
- if H&S plays out, a correction to 10200 is possible

- the bigger H&S on weekly charts will kick only if 10000 breaks... till then ignore it.

Nifty Giraffe to start trading in Singapore?

An easy puzzle...

- Should not take more than 2 minutes
- will post answer by 7 pm

April 12, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.4% in positive at 10459
- AD was negative at 2:3
- option writing support at 10300

- note formation of inverted H&S shoulder with neckline at 10480. A correction here can form the right shoulder. If true, then buy the dip for a breakout above 10480.

In trading... if it feels good, don't do it.

Charts do not forecast prices

April 11, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed flat at 10417
- AD was negative at 2:3
- option writing support 10000 resistance 10500

April 10, 2018

The Failures of Anti-Trumpism

Over the past year, those of us in the anti-Trump camp have churned out billions of words critiquing the president. The point of this work is to expose the harm President Trump is doing, weaken his support and prevent him from doing worse. And by that standard, the anti-Trump movement is a failure.

We have persuaded no one. Trump’s approval rating is around 40 percent, which is basically unchanged from where it’s been all along.

We have not hindered him. Trump has more power than he did a year ago, not less.

We have not contained him. Trump’s takeover of the Republican Party is complete. Eighty-nine percent of Republicans now have a positive impression of the man. According to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 59 percent of Republicans consider themselves more a supporter of Trump than of the Republican Party.

On trade, immigration, entitlement reform, spending, foreign policy, race relations and personal morality, this is Trump’s party, not Reagan’s or anyone else’s.

A lot of us never-Trumpers assumed momentum would be on our side as his scandals and incompetences mounted. It hasn’t turned out that way. I almost never meet a Trump supporter who has become disillusioned. I often meet Republicans who were once ambivalent but who have now joined the Trump train

Read more at https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/09/opinion/trump-republicans.html

Four reasons to start considering a bottom in US stocks




Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- markets closed marginally in positive at 10402
- AD was flat
- option writing support 10000
- expecting resistance around 10500

- if markets reverse from 10500, correction to 10200 possible.

Big difference between reality and what you see

I keep getting fascinated by reality and how we human beings interpret the world. Since our primary interaction with the world is via our senses, it means the brain is doing the processing (the eyes don't see... the brain does).

So the way my brain processes information can be completely different from the way your brain interprets the environment. Net result is my version of reality can never match your version.

And it is very very easy to fool the human brain.

In this picture, the blue lines are parallel... in a similar vein, I can show you static images but your brain will assume they are moving.

So how much can you or how much should you trust your brain?


US China trade wars....the Trump way of doing business

When a car is sent to the United States from China, there is a Tariff to be paid of 2 1/2%. When a car is sent to China from the United States, there is a Tariff to be paid of 25%. Does that sound like free or fair trade. No, it sounds like STUPID TRADE - going on for years!


Translation: The trade war started long ago. We’re losing.


Axis Bank CEO leaving .... stock up .... next ICICIBANK?

AXISBANK up 4.8% today... let's see close.



Does market expect new CEO at ICICIBANK shortly? stock up 4.5%




Occam's razor : Theory of least assumptions

Occam's razor (or Ockham's razor) is a principle from philosophy.

Suppose there exists two explanations for an occurrence. In this case the simpler one is usually better.

Another way of saying it is that the more assumptions you have to make, the more unlikely an explanation is.

Read more at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor

April 9, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, markets closed 0.46% in positive at 10380
- AD was 3:2
- option writing support 10000

How Trump Is Shaking Up the Book Industry

Donald Trump’s election victory plunged America’s elite, liberal and coastal circles into an identity crisis, as journalists and pundits who had been so sure of a Trump loss grappled with charges of insularity and willful disregard. They penned introspective essays and took deep dives into the statistics only to conclude that they were indeed elite, liberal and coastal.

But in sleek SoHo penthouses, Brooklyn brownstones and Upper West Side cafés, a community that is perhaps the ultimate bubble—the New York fiction publishing industry—is still struggling to come to terms with its isolation. Its members are asking themselves how literature became so detached from the contours of American life in so many parts of the country. The perspectives of the white working classes and the rural poor, the demographics that handed Trump the presidency in 2016, have been largely absent from the novels printed every year. And as these demographics become increasingly central to the country’s political conversations, the publishing industry is wondering what it needs to do to change.

“I feel ashamed,” Lorin Stein, former editor-in-chief of the Paris Review and former editor at large for publishing house Farrar, Straus, Giroux, told me last year, before he resigned from both positions. “For a long time, the publishing establishment pretended to speak for more people than it really did. And we can’t pretend that anymore.” He paused, searching for the right words as he admitted, “I wasn’t focused on how closed off our worlds have become from one another … but thanks to the election, I have a very different sense of what kind of marketplace we are all in.”

Read more at https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/04/07/how-trump-shook-up-the-book-industry-217832

Mind twister: Battle of English and Mathematics

Don't spend more than 2 minutes on this...




Interesting perspective on market manipulatione

The very statement of "that market is manipulated" is manipulative in itself.

Every person that puts in an order is manipulating the market.

Crying manipulation is a defensive reaction to simply answer the unknown.

All you should care about is what you do with information at hand

April 7, 2018

H&S pattern on NIFTY EOD and Weekly charts

- neckline around 10000
- right shoulder is being formed
- will discard H&S view if nifty sustains above 10600
- high chances of reversal if current rally loses steam and volume drops

US markets down 2% on Friday. So what?

Past 1-2 weeks, US markets have been trading in a range between 2560 and 2680 (SPX). This has resulted in very wild and volatile moves of 2% or more either up or down.

So this becomes big news like US market tanked 2.2% but since all this is happening within a range, one can safely ignore what is happening.

Till markets break out from the range, nothing much will happen.

People trading the range on lower timeframe charts would have made fantastic money though.

Following chart is 30 min

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