Index monthly charts

The month has just ended for us and it is see how the monthly charts look.

Market outlook

Trend is up with support at 7450 spot. For a reversal, I will look at a min 2% correction on closing basis as a warning sign. The bigger the bar, the stronger the warning.

As of now this is not happening.

BANKNIFTY technicals

After breaking support at 14700, BNF has recovered smartly and is retesting recent highs.

Now strong resistance is present at 15800 levels... so breakout above this will be bullish.

Market outlook

After 2 days of decline, markets recover and close in the positive. For further bullishness, holding today's low will be crucial in next 2-3 days.

Market outlook

Consider trend as up as long as nifty trades above 7450 spot.

Support and resistance AFL for day traders

This AFL will plot support, resistance and pivot levels on intraday charts. For the formula and some theory on this, visit this wikipedia link.

This is the way the indicator looks when plotted on a chart.

Question on position sizing

Question: Suppose Two stocks have buy signal having price of Rs 100 each. Now one stock has Rs 1 SL, so I hv to buy 1000 shares and second stock has Rs 5 SL, So I hv to buy 200 shares. Am I Right ? But how can I make money management ? because one stock has buy value of Rs. 1 Lakh and second has buy value of Rs 20,000 only ?

Bhailalbhai

Weekend update

On weekly charts, trend is up with support at 7450 spot.

Market outlook

Trend is up as markets close at new high. Advance decline was flat.

Market outlook

Trend is up with support at 7450... also, the H&S pattern is as good as rejected.

Note that this is second day, markets have closed in the positive but broader market is witnessing selling.

Market outlook - index management at work?

NIFTY was up 84 points of which 62 points were contributed by 6 stocks. Of this, 40 points were contributed by RELIANCE, HDFC and TCS.

Inspite of all this, advance decline was negative so if these 6 stocks had closed flat, nifty would have been in the negative by 60 points.

Market outlook

Trend is up with support at 7450. Resistance is at 7800.

However today's trading range was extremely small and it could be argued that while bulls did not have the strength to pull markets higher, the bears so far did not make any attempt to start selling stocks.

Weekly charts - GOLD and SILVER

Both these are trending down for quite some time. However recent corrections are slower and taking more time to achieve a price effect.

How to identify a trend

We all keep hearing the "trend is your friend" or "follow the trend" etc but what is a trend?

A trend is the persistence of a stock to move in a particular direction (up or down) over extended periods of time. 

Since TA principles are independent of time, different trends can co-exist simultaneously over different time frames. For eg., it is common for weekly trend to up and daily trend to be down. Ditto for intraday charts.

Weekend update

NIFTY maintains uptrend... closing near weekly high but well below last week's high.

The bullish case is last week's low is nicely protected while bearish case is markets are still trading last week's range so take your pick.

Market outlook

NIFTY is reaching resistance level at 7700. Note that as per H&S view, this means we may shortly form the top of the right shoulder.

BANKNIFTY technicals

B NIFTY is rangebound despite the one day close below recent support at  14500.

Market outlook

Markets close in the positive for the 2nd day in a row. Within a downtrend, 2-3 days of rally is allowable.

Tomorrow is the 3rd day and day after is Friday.

US markets

Slowly but surely the DOW has gained 25% since JAN 2013... the other indices have fared better and stocks even better. This is inspite of all problems in this world (political, financial, currency etc etc).

Market outlook

NIFTY forms  higher high higher low bar... within a downtrend, 2-3 pullback days are acceptable.