BANK NIFTY technicals

BNF posts biggest intraday drop in 6 months hinting  at a possible trend reversal.

Current swing low is at 19000 levels. For confirmation of trend reversal, I will wait for formation of a higher swing low followed by a break of this level. This will take some time.

Till this happens, I will assume trend is up with SL at 18500 spot.

NIFTY Fibonacci levels

These are levels of support for the correction and NOT an indication that the levels will come.

Note the cluster of supports between 8400 and 8600. This will change marginally if one assume start of rally from DEC low at 7960.

NIFTY monthly charts

Trend is still up and will reverse on close below 8000.

Incidentally FEB series option writing has substantial call writing at 9000 levels and put writing at 8000 levels.

Germany's worst nightmare has come true

It’s Germany’s worst nightmare. Increasingly isolated, ganged up on, and even hated by much of southern Europe, it is fast losing the argument over the future of the euro.

Even the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, has been at it. This week he joined in the German bashing with a full-frontal attack on Berlin’s austerity agenda. And it’s causing confusion, dismay and resentment in equal measure in this most stable, disciplined and civilised of nations.

To understand the decisive shift in narrative that has taken place in Europe over the last couple of weeks – from the defeat Germany has suffered at the hands of the European Central Bank, to the Syriza victory in Greece and its demands for debt forgiveness – you have to go back to the euro’s origins and Germany’s place in it.

Germans never wanted the single currency in the first place, for like Britain, they instinctively understood where it would lead – to a fiscal, or transfer, union which Germany, as Europe’s dominant economy, would be forced to bankroll. If given a referendum, they’d have said no.

Read complete article at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/11377010/Germanys-worst-nightmare-has-come-true.html

Market + weekly outlook

On daily charts, markets formed a large bearish engulfing bear - this happened at the resistance area outlined by the expanding triangle. Option writing clues have also been hinting at strong resistance at these levels.

Has the trend changed? A one day fall does not mean anything and while today's drop was 1.6%, we had a bigger fall of 3% this year at the lower end of the expanding triangle. Of course, this is a warning sign.

For a trend reversal, I will look for formation of a higher swing low followed by it's break. Current swing low is 8060 levels which is way too deep with nothing in between this level and 9000.

Alexis Tsipras' Open Letter To Germany: What You Were Never Told About Greece

Most of you, dear [German] readers, will have formed a preconception of what this article is about before you actually read it. I am imploring you not to succumb to such preconceptions. Prejudice was never a good guide, especially during periods when an economic crisis reinforces stereotypes and breeds biggotry, nationalism, even violence.

In 2010, the Greek state ceased to be able to service its debt. Unfortunately, European officials decided to pretend that this problem could be overcome by means of the largest loan in history on condition of fiscal austerity that would, with mathematical precision, shrink the national income from which both new and old loans must be paid. An insolvency problem was thus dealt with as if it were a case of illiquidity.

MCX SILVER technicals

Trend is up and will reverse on close below 36000.

Note slower pace of the rally (bearish sign) and strong support at 34000 (limited downsides?).

MCX GOLD technicals

Trend is up and will reverse on close below 26500

Note slower pace of the rally (bearish sign) and strong support at 25000 (limited downsides?).

Hotstocks and charts

• These charts are for educational purposes only.
• This is not a recommendation to buy or sell
• Follow the trend... if stock is at 20 days high, trend is up and vice versa.
• Golden stoploss: min 10% or 20 days low (long position).
• Never risk more than 1% of your capital on any trade.
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Market outlook

Markets close at new high while forming lower high lower low formation. This is the first day.

Overall trend is still up even as markets are at strong resistance levels.

Advance decline was flat.

Market outlook

NIFTY trend is up; however it is now at upper end of the expanding triangle.

Some reaction is likely here most likely to form a higher low.

Also, a formation of 2-3 days lower high lower low will be considered normal.

Option writing points to support at 8000 and resistance at 9000 (FEB series).

Hot stocks and charts

LAST updated: 27-JAN-2015 

• These charts are for educational purposes only.
• This is not a recommendation to buy or sell
• Follow the trend... if stock is at 20 days high, trend is up and vice versa.
• Golden stoploss: min 10% or 20 days low (long position).
• Never risk more than 1% of your capital on any trade.
• All charts are provided by icharts.in

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Market outlook

Trend is up with trendline resistance at 9000  spot levels. Support exists at 8400 levels.

Incidentally though markets closed strongly in the positive, advance decline was flat. Note that on Friday also, we had good closing but advance decline was negative.

Note expanding triangle on nifty...

ITC nearing 6 month support

ITC nearing 6 month support - note that stock has not corrected or rallied in this period.

RELIANCE inverted H&S

RELIANCE bullish above 910

Stock technicals and breakout reports

Stock technicals and breakout reports available at http://www.mystocks.co.in

BANK NIFTY technicals

Trend is still up with SL around 19000.

Note swing low is around 18200-18300.

BANK NIFTY achieves target 20000

I missed the last 1000-1200 points!

NIFTY weekly update

On weekly charts, trend is clearly up with no signs of any reversal.

This week's 4% move has also given a new lifetime high closing.

Weekly close below 7970 spot will be first sign of trend reversal.

Fibonacci retracements show resistance at 9050 levels.

Option writing points to strong resistance at 9000 levels (FEB series) and strong support at 8000 levels. This means writers are expecting a range expansion and that too on the downside. The only fault with this analysis is that we are close to expiry and the levels can get a bit unreliable.

On daily charts, we have 3 consecutive gapups with small bodies... today, we also had the peculiar situation of a negative advance decline even as markets closed in positive. This is indicative of selling in broader market.

Market outlook

Trend is up with reversal level at 8550 spot.

Nearest possible target is 9000 levels +/- 100 points (based on Fib projections). This means a rally of another 100-200 points is possible.

Option writing points to strong resistance at 9000 levels (FEB series) and strong support at 8000 levels. This means writers are expecting a range expansion and that too on the downside. The only fault with this analysis is that we are close to expiry and the levels can get a bit unreliable.