Bigger trend is sideways... support 18500 resistance 19500
March 19, 2015
March 18, 2015
NIFTY intraday spot charts
- first bar defines trading range for some part of the day
- open = high means selling
- break below first box is short trade... gets stopped out
- next buy signal gets no profit no loss ... region in second box shows struggle for longs
- last trade i.e. short is mildly profitable.
- open = high means selling
- break below first box is short trade... gets stopped out
- next buy signal gets no profit no loss ... region in second box shows struggle for longs
- last trade i.e. short is mildly profitable.
Market outlook
- so yesterday's bullish bar failed to result in any further rally
- buy above level remains at 8750 spot 8770 F
- option writers clear about support 8500 resistance 9000
- next month's option writing levels are crazy but will wait till next week for clarity
- buy above level remains at 8750 spot 8770 F
- option writers clear about support 8500 resistance 9000
- next month's option writing levels are crazy but will wait till next week for clarity
Options Market Signals 2007-Like Crash Risk, Goldman Warns
Although US equity prices have demonstrated a remarkable propensity to completely disregard apparently unimportant things like macro fundamentals, forward earnings estimates, and top-line growth projections, we’ve long argued that eventually, reality will come calling and the farther stretched valuations become in the meantime, the more painful the correction will be.
Read more here
Read more here
March 17, 2015
Market outlook
- signs of support emerging near 8600
- we have hammer formation / possibly bullish
- option writing points to support at 8500 resistance 9000
- we have hammer formation / possibly bullish
- option writing points to support at 8500 resistance 9000
NIFTY intraday spot charts
- markets break out from yesterday's range (first big box)
- intraday previous day's resistance become initial support for the day
- note first big bar... this was buy bar (first arrow)
- breakout above second box failed indicating warning
- reverse trade to short on break below second box (second arrow).
- retest and break of day's low but overlapping bars near supports
- breakout above 3rd box was bullish (third arrow)...
In all these, look for candlestick behavior which indicates or hints at failure of current trend to move or price action happening contrary to trend. For eg., within an uptrend, look for events like candlesticks showing selling at higher levels (upper tails - these were prominent in second box).
- intraday previous day's resistance become initial support for the day
- note first big bar... this was buy bar (first arrow)
- breakout above second box failed indicating warning
- reverse trade to short on break below second box (second arrow).
- retest and break of day's low but overlapping bars near supports
- breakout above 3rd box was bullish (third arrow)...
In all these, look for candlestick behavior which indicates or hints at failure of current trend to move or price action happening contrary to trend. For eg., within an uptrend, look for events like candlesticks showing selling at higher levels (upper tails - these were prominent in second box).
Pin bar trading strategy
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Price action always tells a story. The story of a pin bar is is one where price moved to an area on the chart. The move is rejected by the market, and pushes price back to its original point of origin. Sometimes even beyond if it’s a good signal. Working with the logic of the rejection principle of pin bars, we can use them to:
- Capture potential tops and bottoms to price movements
- Identify breakout traps that can lead to powerful price reversal moves
- Position into trending environments at excellent prices.
March 16, 2015
Most people are obsessed with being right
“Why do you think unsuccessful traders are obsessed with market analysis? They crave the sense of certainty that analysis appears to give them. Although few would admit it, the truth is that the typical trader wants to be right on every single trade. He is desperately trying to create certainty where it just doesn’t exist.” – Mark Douglas
“You don’t need to know what’s going to happen next to make money. Anything can happen. Every moment is unique, meaning every edge and outcome is truly a unique experience. The trade either works or it doesn’t.” – Mark Douglas
Mark is reinforcing the point that there is no situation which has a ‘100% certainty rating’ in the markets. As a trader you need to work with probabilities to maximize your chances of success.
Traders that put too much emphasis on one particular event playing out the way they predict, will learn a harsh lesson. Mark Douglas tells us that “nothing is certain, anything can happen”, so we need to accommodate that uncertainty through a consistent money management plan.
“You don’t need to know what’s going to happen next to make money. Anything can happen. Every moment is unique, meaning every edge and outcome is truly a unique experience. The trade either works or it doesn’t.” – Mark Douglas
Mark is reinforcing the point that there is no situation which has a ‘100% certainty rating’ in the markets. As a trader you need to work with probabilities to maximize your chances of success.
Traders that put too much emphasis on one particular event playing out the way they predict, will learn a harsh lesson. Mark Douglas tells us that “nothing is certain, anything can happen”, so we need to accommodate that uncertainty through a consistent money management plan.
Hot stocks and charts
LAST updated: 16-MAR-2015
- These charts are for educational purposes only.
- This is not a recommendation to buy or sell
- Follow the trend... if stock is at 20 days high, trend is up and vice versa.
- Golden stoploss: min 10% or 20 days low (long position).
- Never risk more than 1% of your capital on any trade.
- All charts are provided by icharts.in
ABAN OFFSHORE
SUVEN breakout
- any new high is always a good buy
- SL below low of breakout bar.
- immediate support 240- swing low 215
- no targets. Profit is whatever the market gives.
- SL below low of breakout bar.
- immediate support 240- swing low 215
- no targets. Profit is whatever the market gives.
NIFTY intraday spot charts
- rangebound trading through out the day
- breakout above 8670 spot
- rectangle/ box shows rangebound area breakout above which may give a good trade.
- breakout above 8670 spot
- rectangle/ box shows rangebound area breakout above which may give a good trade.
Market outlook
- markets trade in a small range but below 8670 spot
- advance decline negative
- option writing support 8500 resistance 9000
- call writing has NOT dropped down to a lower level like say 8800
- this means writers are expecting limited downsides from here
- advance decline negative
- option writing support 8500 resistance 9000
- call writing has NOT dropped down to a lower level like say 8800
- this means writers are expecting limited downsides from here
March 15, 2015
NIFTY weekly charts
NIFTY down 3% last week. Now expect support at lower trendline of the expanding triangle.
Approx. support area 8400 +/- 50 points.
Approx. support area 8400 +/- 50 points.
March 13, 2015
Do not catch a falling knife
When a trend changes to down or stocks start breaking important supports, you should stay away from the markets. At times like this, the 'Buy above" levels will be quite some distance away so it is important you respect them.
Many people however jump in and buy for the simple reason that if something was good buy at 100, it is an even better buy at 80-90.
Many people however jump in and buy for the simple reason that if something was good buy at 100, it is an even better buy at 80-90.
Beginning of the end of HFT
High frequency trading (HFT) always fooled the small guy but when systems become complex, then HFTs fool each other and suddenly they do not like it.
So I find it amusing when HFTs complain about each other on price manipulation fully ignoring the fact that the HFT exists because of price manipulation.
Read more in this link
HFT Sues Other HFTs For "Egregious Manipulation" Of Treasury Securities
My note: if a trading system becomes "reliable" and then popular or accurate, it will no longer work.
So I find it amusing when HFTs complain about each other on price manipulation fully ignoring the fact that the HFT exists because of price manipulation.
Read more in this link
HFT Sues Other HFTs For "Egregious Manipulation" Of Treasury Securities
My note: if a trading system becomes "reliable" and then popular or accurate, it will no longer work.
NIFTY intraday spot charts
- open equals high in NF
- most candlesticks show selling and lack of buying
- first arrow/ sell signal indicates something is wrong with market
- you can short within first box or after first arrow
- all signals give good trade with cover at market close
- no buy signal at all
- most candlesticks show selling and lack of buying
- first arrow/ sell signal indicates something is wrong with market
- you can short within first box or after first arrow
- all signals give good trade with cover at market close
- no buy signal at all
Market outlook
- huge outside bar formed; almost 200 points on nifty
- outside bar covers last 3 days high/ low
- markets close below previous swing low 8670 spot
- fall may get arrested around 8580 levels+ /- 20 points, let's see)
- advance decline negative
- option writing support 8500 resistance 9000
- outside bar covers last 3 days high/ low
- markets close below previous swing low 8670 spot
- fall may get arrested around 8580 levels
- advance decline negative
- option writing support 8500 resistance 9000
March 12, 2015
NIFTY intraday spot charts
- shorted on break below box.
- SL hit immediately in next 15-20 min
- no trade thereafter as high/ low not crossed and trading range was very small
- tomorrow, look at 8740 spot and 8800 spot as decision making levels.
- SL hit immediately in next 15-20 min
- no trade thereafter as high/ low not crossed and trading range was very small
- tomorrow, look at 8740 spot and 8800 spot as decision making levels.
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