November 19, 2013

Is the rally over?

Within this downtrend, nifty trend has reversed to upside. As of now, I don't know if this will be a new rally or not.


Now many people are asking when nifty trend changed. Given the method I follow, nifty broke and closed below its recent swing low at 6080. The result was that the recent rally from 6080 was completely retraced. Also, the correction lasted for 8 days whereas it should have got over in 2-3 days time.

Now there are 2 possibilities: First is that I am wrong in which case nifty will cross 6350 or form a lower swing high and then breakout above this. The latter is more easily tradable as it gives a clear entry point. The second possibility is that a lower swing high forms followed by a break of 6000. For this to happen, nifty must close below 6200 this week or next week.


Those having positional trade in nifty futures can use 30 min charts... here trend reversal levels are 6160F and 6200F (roughish).



Intraday charts point to support at 6205F and resistance at 6240F.


Comments and suggestions welcome

3 comments:

  1. KPL JI,
    THIS IS THE FUTURE IN ALL MOST EVERY MONTH'S TRADE
    JUST FEW DAY'S BEFORE EXPIRY MARKET TEND TO GO IN TO CONSOLIDATION MODE
    I GUESS PRESENT RANGE COULD BE 6150 TO 6250
    ABOVE CHART IS A GOOD EXAMPLE

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  2. Thanks , i have closed my long at 6225 NF...,becoz of this weekly and monthly trend.....but fii data says long......let us watch and play accordingly.....

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