September 25, 2014

Market outlook - first sell signal in 13 months

NIFTY broke key supports for the first time in this rally. The positional buy has turned to a sell the first time in 13 months.

Charts are very interesting and today I will be presenting different perspectives.

On EOD charts, this is first time my trailing SL or swing low has been broken today.

What is now pending is formation of a lower swing high. Price behaviour at this point may set the stage for a good short trade.

The kplswing indicator has generated a sell today - this will turn to buy mode on close above 8180 spot.

The previous buy signal (FEB this year) has generated 1800 points profit (thanks to a steady rally). It is possible and quite likely that markets can consolidate for some time from here on.

Weekly charts are hinting at trend reversal. Officially the week is not over so this bearish view can get negated if markets close above 8150.

Note that deep weekly support is at 7400 levels so many people may rightly wait for a faster retracement/ break of this rally to confirm a trend reversal (less than 10 weeks).

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