March 13, 2018

Circular reasoning?

Wouldn’t the people who are better than me be smart enough to avoid spending time with me?

"It's better to hang out with people better than you. Pick out associates whose behavior is better than yours and you'll drift in that direction."

Notes from a hybrid trader

One developing trader at our firm is not viewing his trading future only as a discretionary trader, but as a hybrid trader.  A hybrid trader uses technology to make better trade decisions, and pulls money out of the market as a discretionary trader, discretionary trader armed with tools to make better trade decisions, and with automated models.
Here is that trader’s review after a recent trading session (edited):

March 12, 2018

Jumping in a trade early before a signal or breakout

KPLTweet text
 
 

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 2% in positive at 10421
- AD was flat... why?
- option writing support 10000 resistance 10600

The Curse of Intelligence or why the market cares a damn about your IQ

It became apparent that the smartest person in the room isn’t always right. In fact, most of the time their intelligence works against them because they’ve become so sure of themselves and their investing abilities that they’re unable to change their mind or accept the fact that the markets don’t care what your IQ is.

Some of the smartest people outside the world of finance can also be terrible investors. Doctors, lawyers, and engineers are some of brightest, most educated people around. They have all put in years of study and advanced training and are compensated handsomely because of it. Yet my experience with many in this group (not all, of course) is that they tend to be horrible investors.

Read more at http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/02/the-curse-of-intelligence

March 11, 2018

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Trading is never about predictions

To be successful, new traders must realize that trading is about probabilities, trends, and risk management, not predictions.

USFDA team finds 'female mosquito' in Aurobindo Pharma's facility during inspection

This may be laughable but in developed countries there are bare minimum standards for food and drug industries. There are definitions of cleanliness and there is a vast difference of an ocean between what we consider clean and what they consider clean.

Even a visit to a small country like Thailand or Malaysia will change your perspective of cleanliness!

On a completely different note, one factor worth considering while measuring the development or progress of a country is the quality or cleanliness of the public toilets. 

March 10, 2018

Donald Trump - the business Prez

Trump threatens tariffs, and then everyone calls him offering deals, essentially "free money" for the U.S. It's more than a little amusing that our media overlords STILL do not understand this, it's been two years, and my gosh, even wrote a book on it.




Head and Shoulders Pattern Failures and Breakouts


A chart pattern that forms in 1936 repeats in a similar way in today's market. How does H&S failure form on price charts?
Here are some recent examples:

https://blog.techcharts.net/index.php/2018/01/30/head-shoulder-failure

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- support 10000
- note faster move in opposite direction as compared to prev leg

BANKNIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- support 23800
- note faster move in opposite direction as compared to prev leg





March 9, 2018

US: Jobs jump by 313,000 in February, best since July 2016

Trump achieves what the past 2 Prez could not... thanks to his tough stand on immigration, "Buy American Hire American" policy, lower taxation, more corporate benefits and .... now threats of tariffs on imports.

This is what happens when you have a businessman as a Prez.

The US stock markets realised this more than a year ago and they have blasted ever since.

What happened to "Trump is Hitler" movement?

I bet he will be reelected much to the chagrin of intellectuals and mainstream media who failed to see the ground realities.




Read more at https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/jobs-jump-by-313000-in-february-best-since-july-2016

How North Korea Can Become Switzerland of the East

North Korea is playing nice with South Korea lately as they coordinate joint participation in the Olympics. But don’t get too excited about that niceness because it is a wedge strategy to separate South Korea from the United States in our unified position against North Korean nukes. Still, talking feels like a positive step compared to the alternatives.

The big issue, as we all know, is that North Korea wants nuclear weapons and most of the rest of the world, especially the United States, is unwilling to live with that. Hence the economic sanctions.

So what would a solution to this stalemate look like?

For starters, you need a solution in which both sides seem to have won something. The alternative involves squeezing their economy until we choke it out, and that’s the current default path. The problem with that approach is that it risks pushing them to a war of desperation, and while we wait for that horror, millions of innocents will starve. The United States will come out on top eventually, but not at a cost we can be happy about. So allow me to suggest a winning option for all involved. I call it the Switzerland of the East plan.

Read more at http://blog.dilbert.com/2018/01/17/north-korea-can-become-switzerland-east/

Why is this post important? Because of the "out of the box" thinking which both Donald Trump and our PM Modi is doing.

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed flat at 10227
- AD was 1:2
- option writing support 10000 and resistance 10500

Breakout failures as an opportunity

Many of my best trades in the past 43 years came about when a chart failed to perform as expected. In fact, it is extremely revealing when charts do not produce expected price action.

March 8, 2018

Stockman Celebrates The End Of The Goldman Sachs Regency At The White House

The financial commentariat and the robo-machines are all in a tizzy this morning because Gary Cohn up and quit. But we say good riddance: The man gave Trump bad advice on nearly every single issue---trade, taxes, fiscal policy and the Fed.

We didn't make any bones about that viewpoint during our appearance on Fox Business this AM. When Maria Bartiromo asked us about Cohn's departure, our reply was: Hallelujah, the Goldman Sachs Regency in the White House is finally over!

The fact is, we do have a trade crisis, but Gary Cohn and the Wall Street pseudo-free traders don't care and never have. That's because they fiercely support a perverted, self-serving monetary regime that systematically and massively inflates financial assets, even as it strip mines and deflates the main street economy.

Read more at https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-07/stockman-celebrates-end-goldman-sachs-regency-white-house

"Markets Are Nervous": JP Morgan Co-President Sees 40% Correction In Stocks

In what sounds more like yet another warning to President Trump than an actual market call, Daniel Pinto, the head of JP Morgan Chase & Co.'s colossal investment bank (which houses its M&A and trading operations) warned that equity markets could decline by as much as 40% over the next 2-3 years - though he believes the present cycle has at least another year left to run.

Pinto said markets are "nervous" - not just about trade, but also by the prospect of higher interest rates globally (they might receive more inadvertent insight today if the ECB's Mario Draghi pulls a Jerome Powell and sends markets reeling with a hawkish misstep).

The prospect that President Trump could start a trade war also has investors on edge - and they could dump stocks if the tariffs end up being larger than the market expects, according to Bloomberg.

Read more at https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-08/jp-morgan-co-president-sees-40-correction-stocks

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is down on daily charts
- today, NF closed in positive at 10243
- AD was flat while VIX dropped 7%
- sustaining above 10275 spot can be bullish
- a gap down opening can lead to new lows (unlikely)
- option writing support 10000 resistance 10500

March 7, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 1% in negative at 10154
- AD was 1:7 while VIX dropped 3%
- note markets are nearing a very strong support region of 10000-10100
- option writing support 10000 and resistance 10600

- possible development of expanding triangle on hourly charts (bullish)

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