“I haven’t seen much correlation between good trading & intelligence. Some outstanding traders are quite intelligent, but a few aren’t. Many outstanding intelligent ppl are horrible traders. Avg intelligence is enough. Beyond that, emotional makeup is more important"-Mark Douglas— Third Eye View (@BrainandMoney) July 8, 2019
July 8, 2019
Average intelligence is enough for successful trading
July 7, 2019
July 6, 2019
Market Wizard Linda Raschke’s Technical Trading Rules
- Buy the first pullback after a new high. Sell the first rally after a new low.
- Afternoon strength or weakness should have follow through the next day.
- The best trading reversals occur in the morning, not the afternoon.
- The larger the market gaps, the greater the odds of continuation and a trend.
- The way the market trades around the previous day’s high or low is a good indicator of the market’s technical strength or weakness.
- The previous day’s high and low are two very important “pivot” points, for this was the definitive point where buyers or sellers came in the day before. Look for the market to either test and reverse off these points, or push through and show signs of continuation.
- The last hour often tells the truth about how strong a trend truly is. “Smart” money shows their hand in the last hour, continuing to mark positions in their favor. As long as a market is having consecutive strong closes, look for up-trend to continue. The up trend is most likely to end when there is a morning rally first, followed by a weak close.
- High volume on the close implies continuation the next morning in the direction of the last half-hour. In a strongly trending market, look for resumption of the trend in the last hour.
- The first hour’s range establishes the framework for the rest of the trading day.
- A greater percentage of the day’s range occurs in the first hour then was the case in the past, and thus it has become increasingly important to trade aggressively if there are early signs of a strong trend for the day.
- In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word – Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen.
NIFTY weekly charts
- trend is up
- this week nifty closed flat
- entire selling happened on Friday
- stiff resistance seen around 12000 zone
- not a single weekly close has happened above 12K
- the day it happens, expect a min rally of 10-15%
- below 11600 more correction possible
- this week nifty closed flat
- entire selling happened on Friday
- stiff resistance seen around 12000 zone
- not a single weekly close has happened above 12K
- the day it happens, expect a min rally of 10-15%
- below 11600 more correction possible
BANK NIFTY technicals
- index is rangebound
- support 30000 resistance 32000
- index is trading near top of the range
- support 30000 resistance 32000
- index is trading near top of the range
July 5, 2019
Market outlook + Budget day analysis
Daily charts:
- today was budget day
- typically these days one sees a lot of volatility
- right enough, markets opened flat but lost 180 points intraday
- (adjusted) close was however 1.1% in negative at 11811
- AD was 5:13
- the level of 11800 is important as it has offered support in the past
- today was also the last day of the week
- and the 5th week when nifty attempted to close above 12000 but could not
- so 12000 becomes a very important swing level
- note today's red bar was the biggest this week and "engulfed" prev 4 day gains
- this means there is a high chance of trend changing to down
- but as markets are rangebound, I will wait for close below 11600
- unless a higher swing low forms
- hourly charts will give signal first for trend reversal
- surprise - vix down actually down 4% so no fear?
- today was budget day
- typically these days one sees a lot of volatility
- right enough, markets opened flat but lost 180 points intraday
- (adjusted) close was however 1.1% in negative at 11811
- AD was 5:13
- the level of 11800 is important as it has offered support in the past
- today was also the last day of the week
- and the 5th week when nifty attempted to close above 12000 but could not
- so 12000 becomes a very important swing level
- note today's red bar was the biggest this week and "engulfed" prev 4 day gains
- this means there is a high chance of trend changing to down
- but as markets are rangebound, I will wait for close below 11600
- unless a higher swing low forms
- hourly charts will give signal first for trend reversal
- surprise - vix down actually down 4% so no fear?
Increase public holding from 25% to 35% ... flood of selling?
The FM has proposed to increased minimum public shareholding to 35 percent from 25 percent. A cursory glance at the largest 3000 listed companies in India reveals a supply of ~$51bn if this is implemented. The 20 companies it affects most listed below: pic.twitter.com/9Xkolt8yHC— Invest-inChat (@invest_inChat) July 5, 2019
July 4, 2019
Market outlook
Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.25% in positive at 11947
- AD was flat
- option writing support 11500 resistance 12000-12500
- today 20 stocks made 52 week highs and 90 stocks made 52 week lows
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.25% in positive at 11947
- AD was flat
- option writing support 11500 resistance 12000-12500
- today 20 stocks made 52 week highs and 90 stocks made 52 week lows
Nouriel 'Dr. Doom' Roubini predicts recession in 2020
Never trust predictions... specially if it comes from a "noted" economist or some professor!
Read more at https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/nouriel-dr-doom-roubini-predicts-recession-in-2020-4163901.html
Read more at https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/nouriel-dr-doom-roubini-predicts-recession-in-2020-4163901.html
Dish TV promoters may sell 58% stake to Bharti arm, Warburg Pincus for about Rs 5,000cr
Stock has corrected from 100 to 65 and now to 30.... If the promoters had sold few months ago, they could have easily got 10 to 15K crores....
Read more at https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/dish-tv-promoters-may-sell-58-stake-to-bharti-airtel-warburg-pincus-for-about-rs-5000cr-4167891.html
Read more at https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/dish-tv-promoters-may-sell-58-stake-to-bharti-airtel-warburg-pincus-for-about-rs-5000cr-4167891.html
July 3, 2019
Market outlook
Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 11917
- AD was 5:4
- VIX dropping down almost everyday
- will budget be a non event?
- swing low 11600 resistance 12100
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 11917
- AD was 5:4
- VIX dropping down almost everyday
- will budget be a non event?
- swing low 11600 resistance 12100
India's first ever budget
India's first ever #Budget was created & introduced by a Scotsman called James Wilson in 1860. Started his career as a hat-maker, Wilson learned finance & economics himself. He was the founder of 'The Economist' & Standard Chartered Bank.— Porinju Veliyath (@porinju) July 2, 2019
Good luck @nsitharaman @ETMarkets
July 2, 2019
Market outlook
Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts (wef today)
- now I will consider trend reversal only if markets close below 11600
- today nifty closed 0.4% in positive at 11910
- a small hanging man was formed (not significant)
- AD was flat at 8:9
- support 11600 resistance 12100
- trend is up on daily charts (wef today)
- now I will consider trend reversal only if markets close below 11600
- today nifty closed 0.4% in positive at 11910
- a small hanging man was formed (not significant)
- AD was flat at 8:9
- support 11600 resistance 12100
Fresh investments plunge to a 15-year low
Indian companies, across both private and public sectors, announced new projects worth ₹43,400 crore in the June 2019 quarter, 81% lower than what was announced in March quarter and 87% lower than the same period a year ago.
..........
According to CMIE data, private sector projects are being stalled at unprecedented rates. The stalling rate is calculated as a percentage of the total projects under implementation so that the values are comparable across time. The stalling rate of private sector projects, which has hovered above 20% since the September 2017 quarter, reached an all-time high of 26.1% in the June 2019 quarter. Within sectors, the manufacturing and power sectors have suffered the most with stalling rates of 27.2% and 20.4%, respectively. They along with the service sector contribute to 92% of the total stalled projects.
Read more at https://www.livemint.com/news/india/new-investment-plunges-to-a-15-year-low-1561976363936.html
..........
According to CMIE data, private sector projects are being stalled at unprecedented rates. The stalling rate is calculated as a percentage of the total projects under implementation so that the values are comparable across time. The stalling rate of private sector projects, which has hovered above 20% since the September 2017 quarter, reached an all-time high of 26.1% in the June 2019 quarter. Within sectors, the manufacturing and power sectors have suffered the most with stalling rates of 27.2% and 20.4%, respectively. They along with the service sector contribute to 92% of the total stalled projects.
Read more at https://www.livemint.com/news/india/new-investment-plunges-to-a-15-year-low-1561976363936.html
July 1, 2019
Market outlook
Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.7% in positive at 11866
- AD was flat ... why?
- swing low 11600 high 12100
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.7% in positive at 11866
- AD was flat ... why?
- swing low 11600 high 12100
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