Market outlook

Markets fail to sustain above 6760 and sell off. Advance decline was negative and selling was evident in most stocks.

EOD charts show formation of large bar with a small body. In current context, this is a bullish sign.

Note that markets are close to some good supports.

NIFTY open interest

NIFTY open interest indicates support at 6500 and resistance at 7000.

Interestingly, highest OI is now in the 7000 call followed by 6500 put.

Market outlook

NIFTY trend is up with support at 6640. The market as of now is still a buy on dips market.

Option writing points to support at 6500 and resistance at 7000.

Tomorrow, expect strength if market can hold above 6760 spot.

Market outlook

We had a poor follow through post Friday's sell off. This means the correction is likely to get over sooner than later most probably around 6700 levels. If at all this level breaks, the market will offer a good buy-on-dips opportunity between 6600 and 6700.

Trade accordingly.

Option writing points to support at 6500 and resistance at 7000.

RSI divergence in NIFTY

I rarely see RSI but today I saw out of curiosity and voila... we have negative divergence on daily charts.

The reason I don't see this is when you are in markets long enough the price behaviour will start hinting at some reversal. You can actually sense some distribution happening.

Weekend update

Possible trend reversal on EOD charts as markets close below 3 days' low. Next week, a fast close below 6640 will mean confirmation of trend reversal.

Note that there were warnings of this for past week days... smaller bars, no blast off rally at new highs, option writing pointing to strong resistance at 7000 and possibility of a deep correction (without breaking 6000).

Current OI points to resistance at 7000 and support at 6500-6000.

Intraday analysis

Initial bias was bearish. First sell signal is shown in the rectangle/ box where markets attempted to cross the high of the first breakout bar and failed. Second signal is on break of day's low 6852F.

GOLD update

Trend is down with support at 1280... expect correction to 1240 if support breaks.

NIFTY megacycles by Kamlesh Uttam

One blog I read quite regularly because of the methods is uttamsmethodofselling.blogspot.in/.

This is an excellent blog and a must read for those who like to improve on their trading skills.

Open interest show large range in MAY

Option writers are preparing for a big range and volatility in MAY.

They are not expecting markets to cross 7000 in MAY and not break 6000 on the downside.

Since markets are close to the upper range than the lower range, chances of a correction cannot be ruled out.

To negate this scenario, open interest at 6000 and lower puts should be highest.

Market outlook

Trend is up with support at 6640... note that trend appears as if it is weakening. The reason is we are at new highs and while markets should have blasted this is not happening and we are seeing smaller bars.

So markets are making new highs but there is no follow through buying.

Option writing points to support at 6000 and resistance at 7000. The deep support may mean that writers are expecting limited upsides but a big correction from current levels.

Trading range 1000 points in MAY?

Option writers are preparing for a big range and volatility in MAY.

They are not expecting markets to cross 7000 in MAY and not break 6000 on the downside. Now 1000 points is a big big range.

This automatically means limited upsides from here while indicating that markets may correct substantially.

Let's see...

NOTE:
1.We will get a better picture on FRIDAY after expiry of current series.
2.Options are very expensive so it may not be easy to earn money.

Market outlook

Trend is up with support at 6640 spot. Note strong resistance in the region 6835 spot.

Break of 6640 will lead to a correction to 6300-6400 levels. The market will remain a buy on dip but as usual one should wait for a buy signal and then buy.

Market outlook

Trend is up with support at 6640. It is expected that 6600 will not break this series.

Since the trend is up, trade long... don't short.

Intraday analysis

Breakout above 6820F (2.15pm) was bullish. But this did not give much gains and position got closed on trailing SL.

GOLD forms a lower swing high

After breaking support in MARCH and trending down, GOLD has now rallied and formed a lower swing high.

Crossover and holding above 1330 will be bullish else consider trend as down.

Weekend update

This was a short week... it started a day later and ended a day earlier.

Trend is up with support at 6640. Next week, close above 6820 can see a rally to 7000-7200 levels.

Option writing clues point to support at 6700... apparent resistance at 6800 has vanished.

Intraday analysis

There were 2 buy signals today... one on crossover of 6720F and second on crossover of 6760F.

A question may arise that when the last 2 days trend was down, how could one initiate a long call? The justification for this is that markets (on EOD charts) were very close to support and a bounce was due.

The big bar on 5 min charts (6720F crossover) was a confirmation of intraday bullishness.

Sensex @ 40000

CLSA says that as per technicals the BSE benchmark Sensex is all set for 39,707 level, an upside of over 75 per cent from its present level of 22,330.80 over 12-24 months. 

Read more the Economic Times

My view: I am expecting a breakout in 2014/ 2015 and we will have a rally similar to the one in 2003-2008 when the nifty shot from 1000 to 6000.

Also, swing traders and investors will make far more money than day traders. This is true of all markets.

B NIFTY outlook

Trend is up and will reverse on close below 12400 spot.