Investors have a huge opportunity to make money: Marc Faber

By when do you see this system breaking down then? Will this bubble created by central bank liquidity across asset classes burst anytime soon?

The bubble can last a long time, one just needs to increase the size of money printing continuously. As a result, asset prices - stocks and real estate - go up phenomenally. So in essence, we have a bull market across asset classes. However, the value of paper money depreciates, as it has done for the last 30 years. Whatever the central banks do now, asset prices will depreciate against precious metals - gold, silver and platinum.

A number of analysts fail to understand that if India gets its act together, then it could have a growth rate of maybe 5% per annum.

But we already are around the 5% mark.

But we need that consistently. A consistent growth rate of 5% is an incredibly high rate. We don't have any growth in Europe and Japan. If we were to measure the GDP correctly in the US, there would be no growth. And we are talking about a demographically attractive population. What Indianeeds is liberalisation of businesses and the reduction in government intervention. That apart, a number of things have to come into place. But, there is hope.

What are the factors working in favour of India as an investment destination?

Read more at http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/investors-have-a-huge-opportunity-to-make-money-marc-faber-116090800788_1.html

IS MOMENTUM INVESTING DEAD? OR IS IT JUST PAINFUL?

Stock-selection momentum strategies (here is a link to more information) can have the potential to generate excess expected returns over the long run; on the other hand, these strategies sometimes generate massive amounts of investor pain when they inevitably go through long bouts of poor relative performance. It’s a kind of quid pro quo: in order to access the potential gain, you must willing to accept the potential pain. 

Among the academic anomalies, the momentum effect suffers bouts of horrific underperformance (i.e., “crashes”) that are legendary among academics and practitioners alike. The relative underperformance is even worse than those associated with deep value strategies. But relative “underperformance” is an abstract term. Just how bad can the “pain and anguish” associated with momentum actually get?

Read more at: http://blog.alphaarchitect.com/2016/09/07/is-momentum-investing-dead-or-is-it-just-painful/#gs.bH2Y2Dg

Survivorship Bias Explained

Long Term Capital Management is a perfect example of how hubris can derail even the most brilliant of investors. The hedge fund was filled with PhDs and Nobel Laureates, but was highly leveraged while relying far too heavily on quantitative risk models that didn’t factor in the potential for unexpected events to occur. When Russia defaulted on their debt in the late-1990s, LTCM was toast, requiring a bailout from the Fed and losing nearly all of their investor capital in the process.

Not only is LTCM a lesson in the dangers of overconfidence in the markets, but the way their demise was handled in the hedge fund index world is also instructive on the prevalence of survivorship bias in financial data.

....

This is a perfect example of the problem with survivorship bias in reported performance numbers. If you only focus on the winners and don’t pay attention to the losers your entire frame of reference can be thrown off and the data you’re trying to assess can lead to false conclusions. Mutual fund companies are guilty of this as well. They promote the funds that are performing well lately and don’t mention or even shutter the funds that are performing poorly.

Read complete article at http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/09/survivorship-bias-explained/

Top gainers analysed

VENKEYS... 3rd breakout

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- RSI at overbought levels but can stay here for quite some time
- immediate support 8700
- option writing not giving any fixed clues
- option writing levels 8600-9000

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets, advance decline was flat
- lots of hesitation as NF approaches 9000
- 9000 is BRN or Big Round Number
- increasing SL to 8700

Buy signals NSE stocks - partial list

Some breakouts on NSE

APTECH

BANK NIFTY closes above 20000... trend is still up

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- social media people skeptical of this rally
- bull markets always climb a wall of worry!
- note there is no clear support between 8480 and 8943
- no trend reversal unless we have faster reversal on opposite direction

In UP, 18 lakh including graduates applied for 40,000 sanitation jobs

Amid studies that say Uttar Pradesh will have 1.3 crore jobless youth (18-35 age) next year, municipal corporations across the state received 18 lakh applications for 40,000 sweepers.

The Kanpur Municipal Corporation (KMC) alone was flooded with seven lakh applications against its 3,275 vacancies for safai karamcharis. A staggering five lakh of them were graduates and postgraduates.

KMC, given its glut of applications, estimates two years to finish interviewing candidates. “It is unbelievable,” says Kanpur mayor Jagatveer Singh Drona. “Honestly, I am at a loss of words to describe the situation.”

The applicants are keen about a ‘sarkari’ job. Amit Gupta, who is pursuing doctorate after post-graduation in chemistry, has applied for the post in Jhansi, which needs 175 sweepers and 15,000 have applied. “The salary is better than what I get as a teacher in private colleges and schools. Jhansi is close to my home district of Hamirpur,” he shrugs. “There are no jobs anywhere. When I learnt about this one, I applied immediately.”

The situation at play is a grim extension of what the UP youth experienced a year ago. In September 2015, 23 lakh candidates applied for 368 vacancies for peons. The Agra Municipal Corporation, which had to fill 1,778 posts, got 90,000 applicants. Of them, 17,000 were graduates and postgraduates.

BANKNIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- nice big bar this week
- support 19000

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- nice big bar this week
- support 8500

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- NF closes at high of this week
- NF up 0.4%, advance decline flat
- option writing support 8600 resistance 9000
- my deep SL 8500

Reliance JIO schemes - who wins who loses

My take:

• the 149 plan is best for heavy voice users (everyone loses except the customer). JIO will get lots of customers but with very low revenue.
• other plans are good for heavy data users (JIO and customers win, competition to lose).

The funny thing is the 149 scheme may get associated with the low end of the market (remember the earlier 500 mobile scheme?). And people (atleast the corporate type) may continue with their existing providers solely because of the premium image.

Also, most packages are for 28 days not one month. Smart or cheap?... but this will mean you get billed 13 times in a year.

Why I am writing on this, of all the things? because I am sensing a big repeat where the customer wins and others do not.



Source: https://onepromocode.com/reliance-jio-4g-activation-tariff-plans-offers/ and https://www.jio.com/en-in/plans

Jobs elusive as India clings to fastest-growing economy tag

The level of desperation for work is staggering. In August, nearly half a million people, including post-graduates, applied for 1,778 jobs as sweepers in the city of Kanpur.

Data out on Wednesday showed India's economic growth slowed to 7.1 percent in the quarter to June, a 15-month low. That is faster than other major economies, but not fast enough to create enough new jobs to absorb all the one million people who join the workforce every month.

A government survey found that job creation fell by more than two-thirds in 2015. Analysts at HDFC Bank estimate that for every percentage point the economy grows, employment now adds just 0.15 of a percentage point - down from 0.39 in 2000.

It's a major challenge for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has promised to create 250 million jobs over the next decade.

"For one job, there are at least 20 candidates," said Kumar. "If you want the job, you can't afford to bargain."

Yet, despite average annual growth of 6.5 percent between 1991 and 2013, India added less than half the jobs needed to absorb new job seekers.

"India has become a demand-starved economy," Sen said. "If there is no demand, there will be no incentive to produce more which, in turn, will mean no new jobs."

Two years of drought has caused distress in farming, while the construction business has suffered a prolonged downturn – making work scarcer in the two sectors that employ the bulk of India's unskilled workforce.

Satellite cities around the capital, like Greater Noida were, until recently, bustling with construction activity.

Now, Greater Noida's skyline is dotted with half-built, abandoned, high-rises. Cranes and diggers stand idle.

Source: https://in.finance.yahoo.com/news/jobs-elusive-india-clings-fastest-030050120.html

TELECOM stocks - BHARTI, IDEA, RCOM

BHARTI breaks support ... trend down

NSE stocks changing more than 5% today

ROC_ 20/ 50/ 100 D means %change over X days

NSE stocks signals today

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed flat
- advance decline was negative
- deep support 8500
- option writers bullish that 8500 will not break this series