May 8, 2020
May 7, 2020
Market outlook
Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.8% in negative at 9200
- AD was flat
- rising wedge broken on down side
- nothing happened since then
- no follow thru selling
- this may happen below 9000
- in trading if you expect something to happen and it does not happen
- be prepared to change your view and sides fast
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.8% in negative at 9200
- AD was flat
- rising wedge broken on down side
- nothing happened since then
- no follow thru selling
- this may happen below 9000
- in trading if you expect something to happen and it does not happen
- be prepared to change your view and sides fast
May 6, 2020
Market outlook
Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.7% in positive at 9281
- AD was flat (why?)
- VIX down 5%.. less fear
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.7% in positive at 9281
- AD was flat (why?)
- VIX down 5%.. less fear
Hope is not a plan
Because here's the problem: if we're just waiting for a deus ex machina while tens of millions of people lose their jobs, and fall into poverty and despair, and we have no timeline, that's not a plan. That's just hope. And hope isn't a plan.— Ben Shapiro (@benshapiro) May 5, 2020
May 5, 2020
Text book perfect bear market rally?
Received on telegram
The Nifty seems to have a completed a textbook bear market rally.
The evidence that it has done so are:
1. Nifty retraced 50 percent of the fall at 9900
2. An Island Reversal was formed, which is an island of bars separated from the rest of the price action .
3. Nifty formed a textbook Rising Wedge marked by green lines—a very bearish pattern, which is basically a triangle which looks like a door wedge, hence the name.
4. For the record a triangle consists of 5 waves: a b c d e5. Prices have broken below the base of the triangle, a further move to below 8900 will result in increased selling and a confirmation of this bearish pattern.
Bottom line we are heading toward Nifty 7500 and possibly below.
Errol Fernandes
The Nifty seems to have a completed a textbook bear market rally.
The evidence that it has done so are:
1. Nifty retraced 50 percent of the fall at 9900
2. An Island Reversal was formed, which is an island of bars separated from the rest of the price action .
3. Nifty formed a textbook Rising Wedge marked by green lines—a very bearish pattern, which is basically a triangle which looks like a door wedge, hence the name.
4. For the record a triangle consists of 5 waves: a b c d e5. Prices have broken below the base of the triangle, a further move to below 8900 will result in increased selling and a confirmation of this bearish pattern.
Bottom line we are heading toward Nifty 7500 and possibly below.
Errol Fernandes
Market outlook
Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1% in negative at 9205
- this was inspite of a gapup opening of 2% plus
- AD was 1:2
- have been saying for a while this is a bear market rally
- all buy signals (indicators) will fail
- rising wedge break means high chance of retest of 7500
- today... continuation bar seen
- below 9000... expect fall to be faster
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1% in negative at 9205
- this was inspite of a gapup opening of 2% plus
- AD was 1:2
- have been saying for a while this is a bear market rally
- all buy signals (indicators) will fail
- rising wedge break means high chance of retest of 7500
- today... continuation bar seen
- below 9000... expect fall to be faster
Bear attack?
Interesting candle started— Pathik (@Pathik_Trader) May 4, 2020
Monthly OPEN=HIGH
Weekly OPEN=HIGH
भालू आया है!!
हल्ला बोल month😉🤓
May 4, 2020
Market outlook
Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts (mentioned clearly buy signals will fail)
- trailing SL is at 9000 (reversal 8050)
- today nifty opened gap down and closed 6% in negative at 9293
- AD was 2:7
- VIX now at 44... up 29%
- "island reversal" pattern formed today
- this requires 3 candlesticks to form
- Thursday gap was a trap and many people got trapped
Now what???
- if you are a price action trader, you will be short from Thursday or today
- a big move in opposite direction usually indicates start of new trend
- if you are a trend follower, you will be having your own reversal level/ stoploss
- for most people, this would be around 9000 levels
- here I am referring to daily charts
- it is normal for signals to fail or SL to get hit
- it is wrong not to have an exit strategy or SL
- I have clearly indicated in my posts that buy signals will fail
- in trend following, after a big move, the next signal usually fails... this is normal
- rising wedge pattern valid?
- if yes, retest of 7500 is possible
- trend is up on daily charts (mentioned clearly buy signals will fail)
- trailing SL is at 9000 (reversal 8050)
- today nifty opened gap down and closed 6% in negative at 9293
- AD was 2:7
- VIX now at 44... up 29%
- "island reversal" pattern formed today
- this requires 3 candlesticks to form
- Thursday gap was a trap and many people got trapped
Now what???
- if you are a price action trader, you will be short from Thursday or today
- a big move in opposite direction usually indicates start of new trend
- if you are a trend follower, you will be having your own reversal level/ stoploss
- for most people, this would be around 9000 levels
- here I am referring to daily charts
- it is normal for signals to fail or SL to get hit
- it is wrong not to have an exit strategy or SL
- I have clearly indicated in my posts that buy signals will fail
- in trend following, after a big move, the next signal usually fails... this is normal
- rising wedge pattern valid?
- if yes, retest of 7500 is possible
May 3, 2020
Island reversal on Monday?
- gap down and close below 9500 will lead to island reversal
- this will confirm top for this pullback rally
- retest of 7500 possible?
- new lows possible?
- this will confirm top for this pullback rally
- retest of 7500 possible?
- new lows possible?
NIFTY monthly chart
- trend is down
- resistance 10000
- support 8000-6400
- see 2008 correction
- consolidation of 3-4 months before the low broke
- resistance 10000
- support 8000-6400
- see 2008 correction
- consolidation of 3-4 months before the low broke
BANKNIFTY monthly charts
- trend is down
- last month this index lost 34%
- consolidation has started
- resistance 24000
- support 13300
- ATR(14) daily charts is 1100+
- last month this index lost 34%
- consolidation has started
- resistance 24000
- support 13300
- ATR(14) daily charts is 1100+
How and why a trader @iManasArora took a short position in nifty at 9854
Learn to visualize Pin Bar Rejection patterns
Learn to visualize Pin Bar & Shooting Star (rejection patterns) & any form of these in combination of 2 or 3 candles. These can give you good entries at or near supply/demand zones and on pullbacks to EMA21 after the breakout.— Price Action Trader (@PAVLeader) May 3, 2020
Practice until comfort level comes!#LearnWithPAL pic.twitter.com/a58pR5f4aZ
May 1, 2020
78% drop in GST collections?
April 2019 was 1.3L Crore.— V. Anand | வெ. ஆனந்த் (@iam_anandv) May 1, 2020
April 2020 is 28,000 Crore.
A shrinkage of 1.02L Crore.
A 78% Drop. You can fudge the GDP but can't mask the revenue collections a lot. https://t.co/GyzDyDlPHW
Some buy signals
- buy signals in a bear market rally?
- keep risk per trade under 1% of capital
- SL at 10 bar low or twice ATR(14) or grid low as per charts
- keep risk per trade under 1% of capital
- SL at 10 bar low or twice ATR(14) or grid low as per charts
ASHOKLEY
NIFTY rally can end anytime
Nifty 50 enters the killing fields, with late FOMO buyers in the cross hairs of the field scope. This rally could end at any time, our could extend toward 10,600. The next big move should be to 6,000 pic.twitter.com/ZKDMntpXpV— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) April 30, 2020
NIFTY PE ratio chart
- PE has reached 22
- and EPS does not reflect the stalled/ locked down economy
- since EPS contract can be large, it will mean PE will increase
- and EPS does not reflect the stalled/ locked down economy
- since EPS contract can be large, it will mean PE will increase
BANKNIFTY buy signal
- buy signal generated on daily charts with kplswing indicator (N=20)
- breakout bar is very small and is a doji
- signal has come just before resistance of 22000
- I will consider a buy only on close above 22000
- SL 10 bar low approx at 19000
- you can also 2 ATR SL ... this will be atleast 2200 points from recent close
- choice is yours
- note prev sell signal was hugely profitable so chances of this signal failing are high
- breakout bar is very small and is a doji
- signal has come just before resistance of 22000
- I will consider a buy only on close above 22000
- SL 10 bar low approx at 19000
- you can also 2 ATR SL ... this will be atleast 2200 points from recent close
- choice is yours
- note prev sell signal was hugely profitable so chances of this signal failing are high
NIFTY weekly charts
- trend is down
- this week, nifty gained 8%
- 4th week of higher high higher low formation
- resistance around 10000 levels
- will nifty fill gap around 10300 and then reverse?
- option writers bullish that 9500 will not break
- this week, nifty gained 8%
- 4th week of higher high higher low formation
- resistance around 10000 levels
- will nifty fill gap around 10300 and then reverse?
- option writers bullish that 9500 will not break
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