February 15, 2016

Market outlook + my trades

Daily charts
- trend is down on daily charts
- today, NF closed >2% in positive
- AD strongly positive, VIX down 10%
- option writing clues show resistance at 7500 levels.

I am expecting triangle development - this means 4-5 legs will form without breaking recent low. One min condition for this is the recent lows should not break for 1-2 months.

Hourly charts
- trend is now up on hourly charts
- reason: faster move in opposite direction/ gap up opening
- above logic was used to play the correction from 7400 levels
- trend reversal level is 6875 levels 

5 min charts
- gap up opening above previous day's range was buy signal
- cover on close

My trades
- overnight short position in 7200 call - booked loss of 16K. Big drop in VIX helped me.
- bought 7100 calls - booked profit 46K
- wrote 7000 put and bought 6900 put (hedge)... MTM is 9K (not booked)
- above position will be carried till expiry or till trend reversal (max profit is 22K).

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