July 10, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.4% in negative at 11498
- AD was 6:11

- next deep support area 11000-11000

- today something interesting happened
- VIX increased initially and later dropped after 12pm
- so markets were going down but option prices did not increase
- this usually happens when a bottom is nearby
- let's see... before the budget also VIX dropped but still markets tanked





5 min charts:
- there were 2 trades
- I could not take the short trade due to some chart error in trading terminal
- traded long as per 2nd arrow

- note this method I have used is the simplest and requires no indicator
- here I am using 3 min for intraday and 15 min for positional



Indicators will give mixed results when markets are not trending
Using 3 min charts, N=20 will give whipsaws even though there are a 100 point trading range



N=10 gives better results



N=5 gives best results but only in a market like today... but this will be horrible in rangebound markets.



So there is no "one size fits all" approach... so the best thing is use indicators to scan stocks and then trade support/ resistance breaks with fast / tight SLs.

15 min charts:
- bullish above 11600 F




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