October 19, 2017

Some breakouts and breakdowns


63MOONS
63MOONS chart

Nick Bostrom: Are we living in a simulation?

At least one of the following propositions is true: 
- the human species is very likely to go extinct before reaching a “posthuman” stage;
- any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of their evolutionary history (or variations thereof);
- we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation.



It follows that the belief that there is a significant chance that we will one day become posthumans who run ancestor-simulations is false, unless we are currently living in a simulation.

Read the scientific paper at https://www.simulation-argument.com/simulation.html

In simple but more words:

Many works of science fiction as well as some forecasts by serious technologists and futurologists predict that enormous amounts of computing power will be available in the future. Let us suppose for a moment that these predictions are correct.

One thing that later generations might do with their super-powerful computers is run detailed simulations of their forebears or of people like their forebears. Because their computers would be so powerful, they could run a great many such simulations. Suppose that these simulated people are conscious (as they would be if the simulations were sufficiently fine-grained and if a certain quite widely accepted position in the philosophy of mind is correct). Then it could be the case that the vast majority of minds like ours do not belong to the original race but rather to people simulated by the advanced descendants of an original race.

It is then possible to argue that, if this were the case, we would be rational to think that we are likely among the simulated minds rather than among the original biological ones. Therefore, if we don’t think that we are currently living in a computer simulation, we are not entitled to believe that we will have descendants who will run lots of such simulations of their forebears.

NOTE: In ancient Indian philosophy this is called Maya - a concept I am a big fan of. I believe everything is an illusion and that it is not possible for the human mind to ever know the reality.

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- this week, NF formed a small doji near all time highs
- this is a truncated week with a 4 day weekend
- support 9700

 

BANK NIFTY weekly technicals

- trend is up
- index is stuck in a range
- index is looking weaker than the nifty index
- support 23800

On this day, 30 years ago, the US markets lost 22% in a single day

Image result for 1987 crash

On Monday, October 19, 1987, stock markets around the world crashed, shedding a huge value in a very short time. The crash began in Hong Kong and spread west to Europe, hitting the United States after other markets had already declined by a significant margin. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell exactly 508 points to 1,738.74 (22.61%). In Australia and New Zealand, the 1987 crash is also referred to as "Black Tuesday" because of the time zone difference.


The cause of the stock market crash of 1987 was primarily program trading, used by institutions to protect themselves from significant market weakness. Some secondary factors included excessive valuations, illiquid markets and market psychology.

October 18, 2017

Happy Diwali - celebrate the festival of lights with lights.

Image result for diwali village

Swing trading signals :: 18-OCT-2017

Swing trading signals :: 18-OCT-2017

  • This report is for educational purposes only and is not recommended for trading or investment.
  • Liquidity filter: ||||| excellent liquidity - ||||| good liquidity - ||||| low liquidity.


Stock nameClosePercentage ChangeSignalReversal
Level/ SL
Last Month's
1 day20 daysHighLow
||||| ABB1335.95-0.50%-7.00%SELL1493.0014931299
||||| ASTEC568.65-2.50%-4.00%SELL640.00675567
||||| AXISBANK464.50-9.00%-10.50%SELL534.65526488
||||| BATAINDIA801.702.00%9.00%BUY668.50750668
||||| BRITANNIA4685.851.50%7.00%BUY4232.6044094151
||||| BSE965.10-0.50%-5.00%SELL1039.001039969
||||| CENTURYTEX1342.702.50%3.00%BUY1203.1013341203
||||| DCW47.606.00%21.50%BUY33.504133
||||| DENABANK28.15-6.50%-9.00%SELL33.603430
||||| FEDDERELEC91.9012.50%28.00%BUY65.507766
||||| GET&D375.15-0.50%-8.50%SELL425.90433377
||||| GHCL259.204.50%12.50%BUY204.00243204
||||| GMDCLTD155.605.50%4.00%BUY132.00152132
||||| GNFC443.752.00%30.50%BUY295.40348295
||||| GREAVESCOT129.20-1.00%-8.00%SELL142.25160133
||||| HEXAWARE285.051.50%2.00%BUY259.00284259
||||| IBULHSGFIN1358.402.00%3.50%BUY1155.0013371155
||||| ICICIBANK263.15-3.50%-10.50%SELL292.85300269
||||| IFBIND858.305.50%18.00%BUY689.95745689
||||| IGL1573.755.00%6.00%BUY1390.5515241253
||||| INDNIPPON1329.0518.50%21.00%BUY985.001216806
||||| JBFIND235.7018.50%44.50%BUY150.00192150
||||| JSLHISAR215.604.50%13.50%BUY163.20209163
||||| JUBILANT635.80-1.00%-9.00%SELL706.50723638
||||| JUSTDIAL426.603.50%3.50%BUY360.10419360
||||| LINCOLN196.053.00%23.50%BUY155.90184150
||||| MGL1198.903.00%6.50%BUY1041.6011841037
||||| MOIL231.1512.00%12.00%BUY179.70213180
||||| NCC94.304.50%4.50%BUY81.109381
||||| NUCLEUS375.0514.50%22.50%BUY293.10322275
||||| OMAXE205.301.00%2.00%BUY193.95204193
||||| PENIND69.2517.50%7.50%BUY56.206756
||||| RAMKY150.706.00%45.50%BUY92.3510690
||||| RELIANCE914.504.50%9.00%BUY779.10872779
||||| SBIN243.75-2.50%-8.50%SELL272.05280250
||||| TORNTPHARM1386.454.00%9.50%BUY1201.6013641147

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed flat
- AD was negative
- swing low support 9700
- option writing support 10000

- has a cluster island reversal formed over 3 bars?
- gap down opening below 10175 (10200 F) can lead to correction

Sharekhan's Diwali 2017 picks - model portfolio


Morgan Stanley: Boosted By Digitisation, GST, India To Be Third-Largest Economy In World By 2027

Digitisation of India’s cash-bound economy and tax reforms can accelerate expansion and propel the country forward to become one of the world's fastest-growing large economies over the next 10 years, a new report from Morgan Stanley Research has said.

Endorsing the government’s string of bold economic initiatives that are aimed at delivering benefits in the long run, the report said India was already on its way to growing at a brisk pace over the next decade, buoyed by demographics, reforms and globalisation.

“The country was already on a strong trajectory, but digitisation puts India's nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth on track to compound annually by more than 10 per cent in US dollar terms over the coming decade," says Anil Agarwal, head of Asian Financial Research at Morgan Stanley.

“The result could be a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity.”

Read more at https://swarajyamag.com/economy/morgan-stanley-boosted-by-digitisation-gst-india-to-be-third-largest-economy-in-world-by-2027

The search for the 9th planet

Image result for planet ninePlanet Nine (orX) is a hypothetical large planet in the far outer Solar System, the gravitational effects of which would explain the improbable orbital configuration of a group of trans-Neptunian objects  that orbit mostly beyond the Kuiper belt.

Planet Nine is not discovered as yet. The prediction is based on detailed mathematical modeling and computer simulations, not direct observation.

Some basic properties we know:
- it is not visible to the naked eye
- but the effects on nearby objects are visible
- mass is 5 to 10 times of the earth
- highly elliptical orbit with a orbital period of 15000 to 20000 years

The existence of Planet Nine would help to explain why all eight major solar system planets are tilted by about 6 degrees, compared to the Sun's equator.

Planet Nine would also solve why our Solar System is considered unusual, in regards to the lack of planets with masses between that of Earth and that of Neptune, when compared to other planetary systems.

Read more at :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine
https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/planets/planetx
http://bgr.com/2017/10/16/planet-nine-evidence-nasa-solar-system/

NOTE: the actual discovery and then the confirmation will take years as everyone has to agree.


Rakesh Jhunjhunwala: the best is yet to come

October 17, 2017

Hot stocks and charts

LAST updated: 17-OCT-2017 

Simple rules

  • This information is for your study only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
  • Consider trend as UP when a stock gives a breakout above last month's high
  • To lock in gains, use a trailing SL (last month's low or last 2-3 weeks low)
  • Expect half the trades to (statistically) fail so manage the risk management in every trade
  • Limit risk per trade to maximum of 1% of your capital
  • In case of narrow ranges, consider the bigger / previous trading range as breakout levels
  • Pay attention to large bar breakout days or one day large reversal bars.
63MOONS
63MOONS chart

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed flat
- AD was flat while VIX increased 3%
- swing low support 9700
- option writing support 10000

Donald Trump preparing for war against N Korea



N Korea has this ... one is enough

Related image

Example of under-reporting of income pre GST

Money raised via IPOs over the years

Elliott Wave Outlook of Nifty for 16 Oct 2017 Onward

Nifty opened higher at 10123 and traded with huge strength for rest of the day. Nifty bounced more than 90 points to register life time high 10191 and finally closed 71 points up at 10167. Let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

Friday, short term and medium term outlook was bullish for bounce above 10178 in coming days. Trading strategy was “Buying on Dip” until Nifty achieves 10178 with 10066 as immediate breakeven point on downside. Nifty achieved new life time high above 10178 on Friday which we calculated 2 weeks before near 9700. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

Read more at http://sweeglu.com/elliott-wave-outlook-of-nifty-for-16-oct-2017-onward/

Every revolution begins with a fad. Is Bitcoin a fad?

The telephone has “too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication,” said the president of Western Union in the late 19th century.

“The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty — a fad,” assured one banker, who advised against investing in Ford.

“I predict the internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse,” thundered Robert Metcalfe, founder of (now defunct) 3Com, in 1995.

Maybe bitcoin and other “cryptocurrencies” are the new telephone, the new auto, the new internet.

Moneycontrol Research’s 12 picks for Samvat 2074

Below is latest offering from Moneycontrol: 12 conviction picks that could fetch strong returns if held from this Diwali to the next, along with the rationale for our choices. The list is in alphabetical order.

Image 1

Obviously this is a buy and hold strategy with no SL. Do your own study before investing.

I have no view on these stocks.

Read more at http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/stocks-business/diwali-sparklers-moneycontrol-researchs-12-picks-for-samvat-2074-2413721.html

October 16, 2017

Swing trading signals :: 16-OCT-2017

Swing trading signals :: 16-OCT-2017

  • This report is for educational purposes only and is not recommended for trading or investment.
  • Liquidity filter: ||||| excellent liquidity - ||||| good liquidity - ||||| low liquidity.


Stock nameClosePercentage ChangeSignalReversal
Level/ SL
Last Month's
1 day20 daysHighLow
||||| ALANKIT36.907.50%9.50%BUY30.353832
||||| APEX458.055.00%39.50%BUY252.20343202
||||| ARCOTECH65.10-19.50%-26.00%SELL123.4510478
||||| ARIES206.6019.50%38.00%BUY143.60174144
||||| ARIHANTSUP169.55-1.00%-6.50%SELL193.00194175
||||| BAJAJ-AUTO3224.802.00%6.50%BUY3004.8031552828
||||| BHARATFIN1018.451.00%7.50%BUY899.60980872
||||| BLISSGVS172.8510.00%5.00%BUY154.25176156
||||| BOSCHLTD22199.302.50%1.50%BUY20350.002265020450
||||| CENTURYPLY275.852.50%11.50%BUY235.25258235
||||| CIPLA606.752.00%8.00%BUY560.65600543
||||| DBL744.403.50%25.50%BUY561.00621561
||||| ENDURANCE1132.701.50%10.50%BUY965.251074965
||||| ESCORTS722.151.50%8.00%BUY605.40687605
||||| EVERESTIND481.3016.00%40.00%BUY324.60385325
||||| FEDERALBNK124.806.00%8.00%BUY109.60121108
||||| GOACARBON699.204.50%86.50%BUY388.00479346
||||| GUJGASLTD932.505.00%11.00%BUY796.40890775
||||| JMFINANCIL186.308.50%27.50%BUY126.30154126
||||| M&M1368.603.00%5.50%BUY1224.0013521224
||||| MFSL580.05-0.50%-5.50%SELL652.90653580
||||| NIFTYBEES1055.960.50%1.50%BUY1000.0010501000
||||| PENINLAND29.756.00%33.00%BUY22.052819
||||| RAMCOIND292.009.00%10.50%BUY232.70292233
||||| SUNPHARMA547.952.00%4.50%BUY489.50529466
||||| SUVEN220.2011.00%23.00%BUY171.65198158
||||| TATAMOTORS437.052.50%8.50%BUY397.40428374
||||| TATAMTRDVR245.002.50%7.00%BUY220.00243208
||||| THERMAX979.654.50%2.50%BUY833.60970834
||||| V2RETAIL476.556.00%13.50%BUY371.15480371
||||| VEDL335.204.00%5.00%BUY297.00335297
||||| WELSPUNIND63.60-2.50%-17.50%SELL78.908166

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed at new high
- close was 0.6% in positive at 10230
- AD was negative
- swing low support 9700
- option writing support at 10000

Shashi Tharoor argues why British Rule destroyed India




UPA 3 is no different than UPA 1 and UPA 2

An interesting critique from Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh, India's largest labour union affiliated with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh.

Read at http://www.rediff.com/business/interview/no-difference-between-upa1-upa2-and-this-govt/20171016.htm

What Professional Poker Players Can Teach You about Trading

Brandon Adams, a professor of behavioural finance at Harvard University’s Department of Economics said, “Some of the best candidates for Wall Street trading jobs are the professional card players at FullTiltPoker and similar web sites.”

As any good poker player knows, if you manage your risk properly and execute your edge with consistency, you won’t be gambling, you’ll simply be playing the odds. Poker (and trading) becomes gambling when the player becomes emotional, throws away their discipline and stops managing their chips (money) properly.

Read more at http://www.learntotradethemarket.com/forex-articles/professional-poker-players-teach-trading

The OODA Loop – what traders can learn from a retired Top Gun instructor

Image result for fighter jet cockpit – the “OODA Loop” - was first developed by fighter pilot John Boyd during the Korean War when US pilots were theoretically outmatched in their hardware but still dominated the skies,

The acronym OODA refers to the elements of the decision Loop - Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act.

I know readers, you aren't going "Mach II  with your hair on fire" - as Charlie said to Maverick in Top Gun. Nor, are we needing to constantly adjust to the intricacies of a dogfight that Boyd or Berke would have experienced in their careers. 

But just in those four words, in the acronym OODA, you can see why Berke told Business Insider "Every single thing you do in your life, every decision you make, is an OODA Loop".

He is dead right. And the OODA Loop will work for trading too.

Read more at https://www.axitrader.com/au/market-news-blog/education/2017/08/the-ooda-loop-what-traders-can-learn-from-a-retired-top-gun-instructor

Be like Ekalavya when it comes to investing

October 15, 2017

Example of a good breakout on monthly charts

NIFTY futures trading strategy for 16-OCT

- trend is up on  all timeframes i.e. daily, hourly, 15 min etc
- NF is near recent high levels and poised for a breakout
- bias remains bullish
- option writers do not expect 10000 to break this series

- strategy is to trade long on any dips using prev hour low as trailing SL.

Charts attached for reference

Did the British educate India and if yes, how much?

MY NOTEs: this is about the recent 200-300 years and not education system 1000-2000 years ago. I am aware of India's glorious past and its contribution to science, medicine and technology. But every civilisation goes through ups and downs so while we had the oldest university in India (Nalanda), today we don't have a single university in the world's best 100 or 200.

....

Far from wanting to colonise the minds of their new subjects, most founders of British rule were fascinated by India’s traditional arts and crafts and keen to explore the wonders of its classical past. The tone was set by the first Governor-General, Warren Hastings, who mixed freely with Indians, was fluent in two vernacular languages, Hindustani and Bengali, and also spoke some Persian, then the court language of the Mughal Empire.
....

some nationalist historians have argued that before the British uprooted “the Beautiful Tree”, every village in Bengal, Madras and Bombay had a school, with pupil attendance rates higher than in contemporary England. But what such statistics disguised was the very primitive schooling on offer in Indian village schools, the absence of printed books and the withdrawal of children before they reached the level of literacy.

...

ACCORDING TO THE Delhi-based historian Aparna Basu, the decline in Indian educational standards dated back to the mid-1700s,  ... ‘The village patshalas,’ she writes, ‘were often housed in shabby dwellings and taught by ill-qualified teachers… There was no fixed class routine, timetable or school calendar. There was no annual examination.’

...

Higher education fared much better under Macaulay’s reforms. Even at the height of the Mutiny of 1857, Governor- General Canning bravely went ahead with his plans to establish universities at Calcutta, Bombay and Madras. Other cities followed suit; and the numbers of new colleges and college students multiplied rapidly, egged on by a wave of philanthropic endowments by Indian princes and newly enriched business magnates. By 1890, the number of Indians in higher education had risen to 60,000, mainly in the liberal arts and law.

Read more at http://www.openthemagazine.com/article/essay/did-britain-educate-india


Some unsolved mysteries of this decade

- Who killed Arushi Talwar?
- Who was Salman Khan's driver?
- When will Acche Din come?

Image result for acche din


October 14, 2017