December 17, 2017

The Four Minute Mile Princple

Humans are social animals. 

As soon as you see someone else breaking through a previously inconceivable barrier, it suddenly becomes possible for you too.

Read more at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four-minute_mile

Elliott Wave Outlook of Nifty for Gujarat Election Result Day

Nifty opened huge gap up at 10345 and bounced further to register day’s high 10373 but failed to sustain at higher levels and declined back by more than 50 points to register day’s low 10319 and finally closed 81 points up at 10333.

Yesterday, overall outlook was bullish for 10329-10490 as upside target range and 10224 was breakeven point on downside. I suggested holding 10000 Dec Call bought in 10140-10150 range on Thursday using fresh stoploss of 10224 to book profit on Friday. Nifty bounced more than 120 points to register high 10373 and 10000 Dec call bounced from 260 to 424 (160 points) in 2 sessions and closed at 390, it is profit of about 150 point with risk of 20-25 points in 02 sessions. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest chart for further scenario.

Read more at http://sweeglu.com/elliott-wave-outlook-of-nifty-for-gujarat-election-result-day/

Facebook bravely admits that it is a problem, and suggests we spend more time on Facebook

In the new post on the potential downside of social media, the authors, who are researchers at Facebook, begin by correctly saying that people are worried about the effect social media has on relationships and mental health. They then point to research that suggests scrolling through Facebook, and blindly hitting the “like” button, makes people feel like crap. “In general, when people spend a lot of time passively consuming information—reading but not interacting with people—they report feeling worse afterward,” they write.

The key phrase is “passively consuming.” The authors’ solution to this problem is not, as you might think, using Facebook less. It is using it more, and more actively. Instead of just liking things, and scrolling through our feeds, they suggest that we should be all-in. Send more messages, post more updates, leave more comments, click more reaction buttons.

Read more at https://qz.com/1158984/is-facebook-fb-bad-for-you-facebook-says-it-is-and-the-company-has-a-solution

Disclaimer: I stopped using Facebook ages ago...

December 16, 2017

NITFY weekly charts

- trend is up on weekly charts
- falling channel seen
- support 10000-9700

BANK NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- support 23800
- weekly close below 24800 may hint at trend reversal

The search for the 9th planet

Image result for planet ninePlanet Nine (or X) is a hypothetical large planet in the far outer Solar System, the gravitational effects of which would explain the improbable orbital configuration of a group of trans-Neptunian objects  that orbit mostly beyond the Kuiper belt.

Planet Nine is not discovered as yet. The prediction is based on detailed mathematical modeling and computer simulations, not direct observation.

Some basic properties we know:
- it is not visible to the naked eye
- but the effects on nearby objects are visible
- mass is 5 to 10 times of the earth
- highly elliptical orbit with a orbital period of 15000 to 20000 years

The existence of Planet Nine would help to explain why all eight major solar system planets are tilted by about 6 degrees, compared to the Sun's equator.

Planet Nine would also solve why our Solar System is considered unusual, in regards to the lack of planets with masses between that of Earth and that of Neptune, when compared to other planetary systems.

Read more at :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine
https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/planets/planetx
http://bgr.com/2017/10/16/planet-nine-evidence-nasa-solar-system/

NOTE: the actual discovery and then the confirmation will take years as everyone has to agree.


December 15, 2017

Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty near Gujarat Election Result

Nifty opened bit higher at 10229 but declined sharply just after opening to register day’s low 10141. Later, Nifty found support in 10150-10140 range and bounced more than 130 points from low to register day’s high 10276 before closing 59 points up at 10252.

Yesterday, overall outlook was bullish without any major weakness and 10140-10150 was suggested as good support range because two important retracements and projections were conceding in this range.

Further I suggested buying 10000 Dec Call (in the money) in 10140-10150 range using stoploss of 10119 to hold till Friday. Nifty bounce by more than 130 points from 10140 and 10000 Dec call bounced from 260 to 351 (90 points) and closed at 341. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest chart for further scenario.

Read more at http://sweeglu.com/elliott-wave-analysis-of-nifty-near-gujarat-election-result/

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF opened gap up and closed 0.8% in positive at 10333
- a doji was formed indicating supply on top/ no new buying
- close was around the upper trendline
- there is no breakout as such so markets can move in either direction next week
- note in 2 months, nifty has not gained anything (has actually lost 2 points)
- option writing support 10000

Naysayers Will Be Surprised By India’s Growth: Porinju Veliyath

Those betting on the NSE Nifty index may clock 5-10 percent compounded annual growth rate, stock pickers may make 25-30 percent and smart stock pickers may make 40-50 percent in the next four to five years, Porinju said.

Read more at https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/2017/12/14/naysayers-will-be-surprised-by-indias-growth-porinju-veliyath-says

Short on good news today?

- considering a contra trade
- with all entry rules and SL in place

- let's see

December 14, 2017

Expanding triangle on NIFTY 15 min futures charts

- today, NF took support from lower trendline and rallied
- breakout from upper trendline will be bullish
- else rangebound with a negative bias

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed 0.6% in positive at 10252
- AD was negative
- let us if today's low this week  and next
- option writing support 10000
- breakout from upper trendline will be bullish

Get rid of the need to trade everyday

Think deeply... What if you cannot change your password?

These days, a password is required to access any web based service like banking, trading, demat, email etc. A password is also required for mobile services, debit card, credit card etc and so on.

In all these services, there is a facility to change the password - you can keep this simple or complicated - it is entirely upto you.

So misuse can be minimised and in some cases eliminated.

Except in Aadhaar based services... here the key password is your fingerprint which can never be changed should there be a compromise of your account. Further, the fingerprints change over a period of time so rejections will increase.

Further your Aadhaar fingerprint is publicly available and easily clonable. Just hold a glass for few seconds and you have left your identity on the glass. And hackers have proved that iris scan is easy to breach.

Watch any detective movie from the seventies and you can see how easily fingerprints are collected from the scene of a crime. You do not need the technology of today.

Of course, there is provision of OTP being sent to your mobile. But if bank accounts are being opened without the beneficiary being aware, then getting a new SIM is not a big deal at all.


NIFTY Futures hourly charts

- rangebound movement seen
- difficult to take positional trades
- support 10180 resistance 10360 F

NIFTY Futures 15 min charts

- expanding triangle seen
- expect lots of volatility within this triangle






December 13, 2017

End the welfare state for stock investors

India exempts capital gains made in listed stocks, on which a short-term transaction tax has been paid, from tax if the stocks had been held for 12 months. This tax exemption is so wrong on so many counts that one does not know where to begin and, having begun, where to stop.

No respectable country that is not a financial tax haven provides this exemption for capital gains arising out of stock market investments. Capital gains are taxed everywhere. Even in India, long-term capital gains arising out of real estate transactions are taxed. A democratically elected government in a predominantly poor country has no reason to exempt returns to capital from tax. Very few Indians are invested in the stock market. A vast majority of them who do are rich by Indian standards. Some of them are very rich. So, large capital gains earned by a small proportion of Indians who are the richest go untaxed. It cannot get more bizarre than this.

Read more at http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/jySWoYabVAerzm69Vi28DJ/End-the-welfare-state-for-stock-investors.html

The Last Auto Mechanic is already born - and the implications for India

Let’s get right to the punch line: a very strong case can be made, and will be below, that within 15 years virtually all vehicular traffic in the US will be by autonomous electric vehicles (A-EVs). And that in turn will fundamentally change how our society works, largely for the better — if we don’t blow the transition, that is. Because that statement has such profound implications, let’s unpack it bit by bit.

EV’s are cheaper. Period. Which means we’re going to use them. A lot.

The evidence is now overwhelming and conclusive: it’s cheaper to operate an electric vehicle per mile than a regular internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle. And that trend is only going to accelerate, as EVs get cheaper and have longer ranges. The reason is mostly physical, and it becomes obvious when you look at this slide — 100X fewer moving parts.

Fewer parts means less wearing out. Which means less replacing, and higher use factors. The NTSB says the average ICE will last around 150,000 miles. An EV? At least 500,000, maybe as much as 1,000,000. Or put another way, as much as you will ever drive in your lifetime.



Read more at https://medium.com/@tomprice_22461/the-last-auto-mechanic-841adec75498

DeepMind AI teaches itself chess from scratch in four hours, proceeds to beat previous champion

DeepMind, Google's artificial intelligence program taught itself chess from scratch in just a few hours and then went on to beat the world's previous best chess-playing computer program.

AlphaZero was given only the rules of the game and no further human input. It then used a technique called self-reinforced knowledge to actually learn the details of the game.

In this technique, the system plays itself over and over while learning along the way. They describe this as a "more human-like approach" to learning the game compared to traditional programs that run an algorithm.

After all of this learning, the system was put head to head with Stockfish 8, one of the previous world champion programs. AlphaZero either won or drew all 100 matches played. The system isn't just designed for chess though. The designers also repurposed it to play Go against the original AlphaGo program. AlphaZero won that 60 to 40, too.

Hot stocks and charts

ALBK
ALBK chart

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed 0.46% in red at 10192
- AD was negative
- overall NF is trading within the falling channel
- breakout from channel will be bullish
- option writing support 10000

Top 5 Holdings of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

To know what other top investors are  buying/holding/selling in India, subscribe to Alpha Ideas Investor Wisdom Newsletter
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is one of the biggest individual investors in the Indian Equity markets.
His (along with his better half Rekha’s) top 5 significant holdings  as on 30 September,2017 as per stock exchanges is as given below:
Company NameSymbolEntity NameValue (In Crores)
Titan Company LimitedTITANJhunjhunwala Rakesh Radheshyam4861.29
Titan Company LimitedTITANJhunjhunwala Rekha Rakesh1137.63
Escorts LimitedESCORTSJHUNJHUNWALA RAKESH RADHESHYAM757.69
Lupin LimitedLUPINRakesh Jhunjhunwala720.61
Dewan Housing Finance Corporation LimitedDHFLJhunjhunwala Rakesh Radheshyam582.00
NCC LimitedNCCJHUNJHUNWALA REKHA RAKESH541.29

To make money in stock market, you need discipline... not brains

Put differently
- there is no correlation between intelligence and success in stock markets
- making money consistently does not mean you are intelligent
- process is more important... follow the process and do not deviate

Our Tax Payer’s Money, His Tesla

NIFTY futures levels for 13-DEC

NOTE: trend is down on 15 min and hourly charts

December 12, 2017

CRUDE breakout can spell more problems for India

Specially if you consider that benefits of correction were not passed on thanks to increase in excise duties.

Swing trading signals :: 12-DEC-2017

  • This report is for educational purposes only and is not recommended for trading or investment.
  • Liquidity filter: ||||| excellent liquidity - ||||| good liquidity - ||||| low liquidity.


Stock nameClosePercentage ChangeSignalReversal
Level/ SL
Last Month's
1 day20 daysHighLow
||||| ABCAPITAL185.85-0.50%-2.00%SELL208.80214177
||||| ANDHRSUGAR510.25-2.50%-12.50%SELL596.00622547
||||| BALRAMCHIN148.40-3.50%-7.00%SELL167.90179155
||||| BANKINDIA179.40-1.00%-8.00%SELL216.80217192
||||| BHUSANSTL64.85-1.50%-6.50%SELL75.807657
||||| CDSL343.15-1.00%-3.00%SELL375.00378351
||||| CENTURYPLY333.953.50%13.50%BUY285.20326277
||||| GENESYS325.75-2.50%-4.50%SELL387.45387323
||||| GOKEX110.20-3.50%-1.50%SELL134.65135110
||||| HATSUN851.10-1.50%-3.50%SELL924.45970708
||||| HAVELLS546.301.00%6.50%BUY494.30528486
||||| HEROMOTOCO3441.70-2.00%-5.50%SELL3710.0038833561
||||| HINDOILEXP137.157.50%6.50%BUY119.1013593
||||| HITECHGEAR544.303.00%39.00%BUY385.20455374
||||| ICICIGI784.302.50%14.00%BUY670.00726668
||||| IEX1607.453.00%4.00%BUY1490.0016201490
||||| INDIANB375.10-3.00%-6.00%SELL427.40427318
||||| INFRATEL355.40-3.00%-10.00%SELL399.40452373
||||| JMCPROJECT619.254.00%30.00%BUY460.00583432
||||| KIOCL375.95-2.00%-18.00%SELL499.75503324
||||| KOKUYOCMLN144.5019.50%42.00%BUY97.9513498
||||| MANPASAND361.30-1.50%-15.50%SELL433.15452390
||||| MAWANASUG87.95-8.00%-12.00%SELL106.7013092
||||| MAXVIL98.355.00%22.00%BUY78.009278
||||| MONTECARLO563.954.00%12.00%BUY464.15559464
||||| NBCC251.15-1.00%-7.00%SELL277.85291252
||||| NIACL576.75-0.50%-17.50%SELL703.85750632
||||| OBEROIRLTY451.05-0.50%-1.00%SELL528.95529452
||||| PFC116.05-3.50%-7.00%SELL130.45148120
||||| PURVA165.858.50%75.00%BUY91.6015892
||||| RAMCOSYS513.253.50%26.00%BUY392.40470392
||||| RECLTD147.00-2.50%-8.00%SELL165.10184154
||||| RHFL86.805.50%22.00%BUY62.258862
||||| SUVEN185.95-0.50%-3.50%SELL207.40225189
||||| TRIGYN141.009.00%44.50%BUY92.2512492
||||| TVSMOTOR760.200.50%8.00%BUY690.00748680
||||| UBL1012.65-4.00%-9.00%SELL1176.5011901015
||||| UFO504.653.00%12.00%BUY426.00499417
||||| UNIONBANK150.75-2.50%-8.00%SELL181.00185161
||||| VETO233.604.00%6.00%BUY210.30231201

BANK NIFTY technicals

- trend is down
- key levels are 24800 and 25500

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF reacted off the trendline resistance
- close was at 10240 off 0.8% in negative
- AD wsa negative
- option writing support 10000

December 11, 2017

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts (read my note on trend change)
- today NF closed 0.55% in positive at 10322
- AD was flat
- expecting resistance near upper trendline
- option writing support 10000
- swing low 10000

India May Not Share The Good Fortunes Of Emerging Markets

Emerging markets are expected to return close to 100 percent over the next two years, according to Bofa-ML strategist Ajay Kapur. However, unlike the broader emerging markets, returns on equity in for MSCI India have been on a declining trend, the strategy note added. But the rise in emerging markets is likely to have a “positive rub-off” on India, it added.

BofA Merrill Lynch said that Indian equities benefitted from the global asset inflation and the “global fortunes” will have a large impact on prices in the country in 2018.

Read more at https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/2017/12/11/india-may-not-share-the-good-fortunes-of-emerging-markets

Debt-Trap Diplomacy: How China is recovering its loans made to developing countries

In a reminder of how Chinese loans are collateralized by strategically important physical assets, Sri Lanka today formally handed over the Hambantota port to China on a 99-year lease because it is simply not in a position to repay its onerous debt to Beijing.

Next is Pakistan?

>>>
Sri Lanka on Saturday formally handed over the control of the southern deep sea port of Hambantota to the Chinese-led companies that will run its operations, and received its first payment on the 99-year lease, the Colombo Gazette reported.

The China Merchants Port Holdings company owns 85% stake in the Hambantota International Port Group Ltd, which will now restructure the port for an estimated cost of $794 million (Rs 5,119 crore). The total deal is worth $1.1 billion (approximately Rs 6,500 crore) and will help Colombo repay the money it owes Beijing. The Sri Lanka Port Authority controls the rest of the stake in the company.
<<<

Read more at https://scroll.in/latest/860934/sri-lanka-hands-over-hambantota-port-to-chinese-company-on-a-99-year-lease

Bitcoin crosses USD 16000

The U.S. Media Just Suffered Its Most Humiliating Debacle in Ages

This post is an example of the extent to which highly "respected" media can fall to achieve their personal interests. The context is the US where Trump is the most hated President in the history so any news which can kick up dirt is welcome.

Friday was one of the most embarrassing days for the U.S. media in quite a long time. The humiliation orgy was kicked off by CNN, with MSNBC and CBS close behind, with countless pundits, commentators and operatives joining the party throughout the day. By the end of the day, it was clear that several of the nation’s largest and most influential news outlets had spread an explosive but completely false news story to millions of people, while refusing to provide any explanation of how it happened.

NIFTY futures levels for 11-DEC

Goldman Sachs: NIFTY target 11600 by Dec 18

Bankers Prepare To Send Nearly Rs 1.8 Lakh Crore In Loans To NCLT

Loans worth nearly Rs 1.82 lakh crore are at risk of entering the insolvency and bankruptcy process this month, three bankers with direct knowledge have confirmed. According to these bankers, this is the approximate exposure which banks have against the 29 corporate accounts which form the second list of stressed assets created by the Reserve Bank of India, most of which will have to be admitted under the insolvency process.

These firms will add to the 12 large accounts which were referred for resolution under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code in June this year at the direction of the RBI. Following this, another list of accounts had been sent to banks to try and resolve by December. If they failed to do so, banks were asked to refer these to the IBC too.

Read more at https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/2017/12/11/bankers-prepare-to-send-nearly-rs-18-lakh-crore-in-loans-to-nclt

Investors Told to Brace for Steepest Rate Hikes Since 2006

Wall Street economists are telling investors to brace for the biggest tightening of monetary policy in more than a decade.

With the world economy heading into its strongest period since 2011, Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. predict average interest rates across advanced economies will climb to at least 1 percent next year in what would be the largest increase since 2006.

Read more at https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/2017/12/11/investors-told-to-brace-for-steepest-rate-hikes-since-2006

Australian Securities Exchange Plans to Implement Blockchain Technology

This week the Australian Securities Exchange will be replacing its existing technology with blockchain to clear and settle trades.

After years of testing, traders hope the new system in place will cut the costs of transactions, make them more secure, and make them significantly faster. Dominic Stevens, ASX Managing Director and CEO, Executive Director of BCom, said that the move to the "distributed ledger technology will put Australia at the forefront of innovation in financial markets."

What is Blockchain?

To keep it simple, Blockchain is a decentralized, digital, public ledger used to verify transactions for cryptocurrencies. Each transaction is a "block" and is added to the leger in chronological order. This technology is currently being used to monitor and verify any transactions made within digital currencies. "By allowing digital information to be distributed but not copied, blockchain technology created the backbone of a new type of internet," says the Block Geek team. According to the team, by storing blocks of identical information across its network, a blockchain cannot be controlled by any single entity and has no single point of failure.

Read more at https://interestingengineering.com/australian-securities-exchange-plans-to-implement-blockchain-technology

December 10, 2017

Hot stocks and charts

AJANTPHARM
AJANTPHARM chart

The Antilibrary: Why Unread Books Are The Most Important

A good library is filled with mostly unread books. That's the point. 
Our relationship with the unknown causes the very problem Taleb is famous for contextualizing: the black swan. 
Because we underestimate the value of what we don't know and overvalue what we do know, we fundamentally misunderstand the likelihood of surprises.
The antidote to this overconfidence boils down to our relationship with knowledge. 
The anti-scholar, as Taleb refers to it, is “someone who focuses on the unread books, and makes an attempt not to treat his knowledge as a treasure, or even a possession, or even a self-esteem enhancement device — a skeptical empiricist.”

Trading has nothing to do with a finance education


The Turtles always supported this view.

On a related note, I have always maintained there is no correlation between intelligence and successful trading.

The Curse of the Young Millionaire

Personalizing successes sets people up for disastrous failure. They begin to treat the success as a personal reflection rather than the result of capitalizing on a good opportunity, being at the right place at the right time or even being just plain lucky.
The high from “being right” the market and making all that money is unbelievable. It cannot be duplicated with drugs. You are totally invincible. You are impervious to all pain. There’s nothing bad in the world.

Making tons of money at an early age is probably a combination of the best and worst thing that can happen to you. It gives you tons of possibilities but also opens you up to potential problem situations if you’re not equipped to handle it.

Research shows about 70% of people who receive a financial windfall will lose it within a few years.
It’s estimated that nearly 80% of NFL players are broke or bankrupt after being out of the league for two years. Sixty percent of NBA players are broke after being out for 5 years.

One of the biggest problems with becoming wealthy, especially when it happens really fast, is that people become overconfident and assume wealth equals better decision-making ability. If anything, more money often causes people to make worse decisions. Success early on in life can also give you a false sense of intelligence or skill.



Read more at http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2017/11/the-curse-of-the-young-millionaire

December 9, 2017

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up
- support 9700
- nifty trading in flag pattern
- breakout from channel will be bullish

BANK NIFTY weekly technicals

- trend is up
- support 23800

Update on NIFTY trend

On 6-DEC, Nifty broke and closed below 10100. This triggered my trailing SL and I confirmed change of trend in Nifty. I also mentioned this was the first and only sell signal in Nifty this year.

Now I also mentioned that 10000 is a big support and will not break this series thanks to the massive put writing (open interest is still the highest).

Common sense dictates I take 10000 as the stoploss and not 10100.

This was a serious error on my part and this post is to put this on record that:

"trend is up and will reverse on close 10000 ... i.e. decisive break of 10000."

The new economy

December 8, 2017

About discarding a hard drive containing 7500 bitcoins now worth USD 100 million+

As The Independent reports, Howells began his fascination with the cryptocurrency in February 2009, and through his computational expertise, he mined 7,500 Bitcoins in the preceding years.

However, there was a woman in Howells' life and, as Gizmodo reports, his girlfriend got fed up with the noise of his block-mining hardware and made him stop. At the time, it was not a big loss he notes, bitcoin was worth next to nothing.

"After I had stopped mining, the laptop I had used was broken into parts and sold on eBay. However, I kept the hard drive in a drawer at home knowing it contained my Bitcoin private keys, so that if Bitcoin did become valuable one day I would still have the coins I had mined," he told the Telegraph.

Then "in mid-2013 during a clear-out, the hard drive was mistakenly thrown out and put into a general waste bin at my local landfill site, after which it was buried on site."

And so buried deep below thousands of tons of garbage on a Welsh landfill site, lies a hard drive with bitcoins potentially worth more than $100 million.

Read more at http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-06/man-who-threw-away-bitcoin-now-has-over-100-million-reasons-dig-landfill-site

Market outlook

Daily charts
- NF closed at 10266 up 1%
- AD was positive
- NF has gained 300 points after my first sell call this year
- calling for a trend reversal when 10000 never broke is an error on my part
- so this short trade can whipsaw
- I will keep swing reversal SL at 10400-10500
- option writing support at 10000
- option writing also shows big unwinding in OTM calls

December 7, 2017

Funny advice for Bitcoin traders/ investors AFTER missing the bus

Question: where was your advice to buy Bitcoin when it was at USD 1000 or 2000 or 5000? 



NIFTY futures level for 8-DEC

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is down on daily charts
- today, markets closed 1.2% in positive at 10167
- AD was 3:1
- bounce came off 10000 levels which has been mentioned as option writing support
- resistance seen around 10400
- note channel on chart... I expect NF to trade within this

Interesting chart patterns

India's Looking Like the Anti-Goldilocks Economy

This illustrates the government's great dilemma. Growth in India never quite slows down enough to make crisis measures necessary. ... The couple things the government has gotten right in the past few months -- its attempts to streamline the new goods-and-services tax and its determined approach to cleaning up distressed assets -- haven't been dramatic enough either to ease the RBI's worries or to push the economy to a permanently higher growth path.

Overall, this government has muddled through, producing a middling policy record and a middling growth record. Now it's clear that the RBI won't bail it out; the best chance for lower rates may have passed. Any revival of private investment -- which, as a proportion of GDP, was even lower in the second quarter than the first -- will have to come from somewhere else.

Frankly, if the government is serious about a growth revival, it will have to return to the drawing board. It still has time and political capital to spare before it has to face the voters in 2019.

Read more at https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/2017/12/07/india-s-looking-like-the-anti-goldilocks-economy

Nifty loses over Rs 3 lakh crore in market capitalisation in a month

Bitcoin crosses USD 14000 .... 40% return in few days and 15X in one year

Easter egg on Google Search - Do a barrel roll - try it

No market trends all the time

No market trends all the time. 

No range sustains all the time. 

No strategy works all the time. 

That's why you MANAGE RISK all the time.

Why you should NOT invest in actively managed funds

Reason is simple...high management fees. Typical fees are around 2.5% which means over a 10 year period you have paid off 25% of your capital towards management fees.

And if the market has not gone anywhere (CAGR is 0), then your NAV (after fees) has come down by 25%. This means the NAV has to increase by 33% for you to break even.

Here is what your investment will look like if you invest 100000 pa by SIP in any actively managed fund. The assumed CAGR is 15% while the Actual Return column is after adjusting 2.5% towards management fees.

As you can see, the reduction in profit is almost 300,000/- which is equal to 3 year SIP amount. Note that the maths is not perfect as I have used a simple CAGR formula and not adjusted the balance at the end of every year.

I have not considered brokerage... this will knock off another 0.5% pa.

The alternative for investment is any passively managed fund  (eg index fund, ETFs etc) - here the management fees is 0.5%.



NIFTY at RSI supports

This  may explain why option writers are bullish 10000 may not break this series.

Also, SENSEX has not broken previous supports unlike NIFTY.



SENSEX chart - retesting AUG/ SEP resistance as support


December 6, 2017

Money Management Using The Kelly Criterion

The Kelly criterion is a formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets in order to maximise the logarithm of wealth. In recent years, Kelly has become a part of mainstream investment theory and the claim has been made that well-known successful investors including Warren Buffett and Bill Gross use Kelly methods.

• Win probability - The probability that any given trade you make will return a positive amount. 
• Win/loss ratio - The total positive trade amounts divided by the total negative trade amounts.

These two factors are then put into Kelly's equation: 
Kelly % = W – [(1 – W) / R]

Where: 
W = Winning probability 
R = Win/loss ratio = value of profitable trade/ value of loss making trade

Example: say you are winning 60% of the time and your Win/ Loss ratio is 1.5. Then you should invest:

= 0.6-[0.4/1.5]=0.33 or 33% of your capital on a trade.

Another example: say you are winning 20% of the time and your Win/ Loss ratio is 5. Then you should invest:

= 0.2-[0.8/5]=0.04 or 4% of your capital on a trade.

Last example: say you are winning 50% of the time and your Win/ Loss ratio is 2. Then you should invest:

= 0.5-[0.5/2]=0.25 or 25% of your capital on a trade.

NOTE: I am risk averse and prefer capping investment per trade at 5% of capital.

Read more at https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/04/091504.asp





NIFTY future levels for 7-DEC


Swing trading signals :: 06-DEC-2017

Swing trading signals :: 06-DEC-2017

  • This report is for educational purposes only and is not recommended for trading or investment.
  • Liquidity filter: ||||| excellent liquidity - ||||| good liquidity - ||||| low liquidity.


Stock nameClosePercentage ChangeSignalReversal
Level/ SL
Last Month's
1 day20 daysHighLow
||||| ABCAPITAL186.65-1.50%-4.50%SELL208.80214177
||||| AEGISCHEM254.003.00%13.00%BUY223.05249223
||||| ANDHRSUGAR519.30-4.50%-13.00%SELL621.90622547
||||| AUROPHARMA653.15-2.00%-17.00%SELL804.00809689
||||| BAJAJ-AUTO3109.55-1.50%-2.00%SELL3373.8033743146
||||| CADILAHC418.60-1.00%-15.50%SELL500.00515428
||||| CHENNPETRO404.30-2.00%-11.50%SELL469.45477410
||||| CRISIL1767.55-2.00%-1.50%SELL1889.9518901775
||||| ENIL735.00-1.00%-8.50%SELL837.00898742
||||| GICHSGFIN408.45-1.50%-7.00%SELL462.90490414
||||| GODFRYPHLP970.60-1.50%-1.50%SELL1076.251076980
||||| GOLDBEES2605.650.00%-1.00%SELL2670.0026702613
||||| HINDALCO232.10-3.00%-11.50%SELL267.95278240
||||| HINDZINC285.85-3.00%-8.00%SELL320.50328294
||||| ICICIBANK299.50-1.50%-1.50%SELL332.35332302
||||| IIFL574.85-1.50%-4.00%SELL624.00628576
||||| IMFA570.00-1.50%-7.50%SELL639.00687590
||||| INFRATEL370.35-2.00%-14.50%SELL443.45452373
||||| KIOCL386.35-4.00%-6.50%SELL502.85503324
||||| KITEX281.70-1.50%-10.50%SELL324.00346230
||||| LICHSGFIN553.40-3.00%-5.00%SELL610.00614574
||||| LT1191.25-1.50%-2.00%SELL1274.9512751203
||||| MEGH101.05-1.50%-6.00%SELL120.00129102
||||| MERCATOR36.75-4.00%-12.00%SELL42.804938
||||| MFSL529.75-2.50%-2.50%SELL588.65590541
||||| MTNL20.75-1.00%-10.00%SELL23.752721
||||| NATIONALUM76.20-2.50%-12.00%SELL90.159878
||||| NIFTYBEES1037.72-0.50%-2.00%SELL1075.0010811043
||||| ORIENTBANK121.15-2.00%-4.50%SELL134.60146122
||||| SIEMENS1127.15-3.00%-8.00%SELL1239.9512921159
||||| TATAMTRDVR226.75-1.00%-6.50%SELL252.50262230
||||| TATASTEEL667.60-1.00%-3.50%SELL718.50718669
||||| UBL1021.70-3.50%-10.00%SELL1176.5011901015
||||| ULTRACEMCO4037.40-1.50%-7.50%SELL4490.9044914128
||||| UNIONBANK155.15-3.50%-4.50%SELL181.00185161
||||| VEDL281.80-2.00%-12.00%SELL327.35346294
||||| VIDHIING105.0016.00%16.00%BUY84.0010475
||||| VIVIMEDLAB111.40-2.00%-5.00%SELL125.30127113
||||| WIPRO282.500.00%-6.50%SELL304.45309289