December 13, 2017

The Last Auto Mechanic is already born - and the implications for India

Let’s get right to the punch line: a very strong case can be made, and will be below, that within 15 years virtually all vehicular traffic in the US will be by autonomous electric vehicles (A-EVs). And that in turn will fundamentally change how our society works, largely for the better — if we don’t blow the transition, that is. Because that statement has such profound implications, let’s unpack it bit by bit.

EV’s are cheaper. Period. Which means we’re going to use them. A lot.

The evidence is now overwhelming and conclusive: it’s cheaper to operate an electric vehicle per mile than a regular internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle. And that trend is only going to accelerate, as EVs get cheaper and have longer ranges. The reason is mostly physical, and it becomes obvious when you look at this slide — 100X fewer moving parts.

Fewer parts means less wearing out. Which means less replacing, and higher use factors. The NTSB says the average ICE will last around 150,000 miles. An EV? At least 500,000, maybe as much as 1,000,000. Or put another way, as much as you will ever drive in your lifetime.


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