July 18, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.25% in negative at 10980
- AD was 1:2
- option writing support 10800

5 min charts:
- break of first hour trading range was sell signal
- by the time, I noticed the second bar had already started
- gave the trade a miss... good decision

kplswing swing indicator:
- first bar was a buy signal
- this is to be ignored as bar did not close near high
- markets traded in a range
- sell signal ignored as it happened at low of range
- next bar was big drop
- if one took a short here, he would be stopped out by 1pm

Price action traders may have made money...
- first bar indicated selling at higher levels
- circled area was a nice place for a short trade
- shorting near support (day's low) and just before big bar may be a no-no

Summary... not all indicators or methods work all the time. Stick to what you are comfortable with and over a large number of trades, there will not be much difference between results.

Today it was sheer randomness that the breakout bar was a very big bar... if it was 8-10 points, everyone would have caught the move.

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