September 3, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today markets closed 0.8% in negative at 11582
- AD was flat (bullish sign)
- VIX up 9%
- option writing support 11600 resistance 11800

- I am ignoring the size of the bar as of now

5 min charts:
- last 2-3 days, signs of profit booking/ resistance at higher levels
- so today's market was set for a short trade
- still it was a day of missed opportunities and wrong trades

- traded short after formation of first bar with SL at day's high (dangerous!)
- exited half position at circled area (sensible?)
- the pressure to cover would have been there as the trade was in a loss for 2-3 hours after taking the position. Normally if a trade does not give profit, it is most likely a wrong trade

- then we had a range breakdown and 2 short opportunities
- mistake was not adding more to short positions (very big mistake)
- I think I wrongly expected prev day low to hold so felt risk reward was not favourable
- still ended the day with profit though below what was possible (unpardonable)

- funny thing is if an employee had done this kind of trading, I would have sacked him!

Same chart with kplswing indicator

15 min charts:
- trend is down
- but with such kind of vertical moves, a very tight trailing SL is required

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