March 13, 2020

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 4.5% in positive at 9952
- AD was 5:4

- today was a volatile day
- gap down opening at 9100, lower circuit at 8555 and then a fast rally
- this is probably the biggest trading ranges in a 10-15 years
- ATR has shot up to 380 points
- this will make a mockery of any SL.

- the only to trade is wait patiently for the volatility to come down
- in my experience this will take couple of weeks atleast

- VIX shot up 46% to a record high of 59
- high VIX makes options extremely expensive
- these levels are seen once in 8-10 years

- we exited 50% delivery calls on 20th JAN and last on 28th FEB
- highest loss was 10% in a stock and last exits were all in profits
- max portfolio drawdown was 0.4%
- nifty since then has cracked by 2000 points

- retails investors have lost heavily in past few months
- and most never had any risk management in place

- we are now waiting for markets to stabilise before initiating new delivery trades

- Intraday charts were wild with ATR of 60 points on 3 min charts, 180 points on 15 min charts and 240 points on 30 min charts
- fastest move happened was 1000 points in 3 minutes
- later average bar size was 80 points in 3 minutes

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