February 20, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.2% in negative at 10360
- AD was negative
- option writing support 10000 (March series)

February 19, 2018

China launches crackdown against 7 mn bank defaulters, shows India how to deal with debtors

With examples of bank defaulters like Vijay Mallya, absconding from the country, still fresh in the minds of Indians, China has taken another strict step towards penalising the debtors and defaulters. In an unprecedented crackdown, China’s Supreme People’s Court has blacklisted 6.73 million bank defaulters and restricted them from travelling by plane, applying for loans & credit cards or getting promoted.

As reported by Global Times, till date, the Chinese government had barred 6.15 million people from buying plane tickets and 2.22 million from travelling by high-speed train. Supreme people’s Court enforcement bureau chief, Meng Xiang has confirmed that SPC has cooperated with airlines and railway companies to bar the defaulters with the help of their official IDs and passports. The implementation of the ban based on passports was initiated as earlier many defaulter with barred ID card numbers started buying plane tickets with their passports.

Read more at http://www.financialexpress.com/world-news/china-launches-crackdown-against-7-mn-bank-defaulters-shows-india-how-to-deal-with-debtors/558021/

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.7% in negative at 10378
- AD was 1:4
- some signs of buying seen as NF comes close to 6-FEB gapdown opening level

- option writing support 10000 resistance 10600
- this level is a good resistance area

Careful, MSCI, you may be raising a new Osama bin Laden

A scathing open letter, by Nilesh Shah of Kotak MF to MSCI on its threat to remove India from the MSCI index.

Please evaluate the following facts before taking any decision in the context of issuing a stern warning for weightage cut to India for nonsharing of data by exchanges with its competitors:

• India is the only country in the world where in the listed segment, the largest bank, the largest insurance company, the largest mortgage company, the largest FMCG company, the largest telecom company, the largest automobile company etc are majority-owned by foreigners. Do you think that is  ..

Read more at: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/62978325.cms

Charlie Munger on Bitcoins, Banking, AI, and Life

On searching for ideas – The two rules of fishing are to fish where the fish are, and don’t forget the first rule. Investing is the same thing. In some places, no matter how good a fisherman you are, you won’t do well. Life is a long game. Take it as comes and do the best you can, and if you live to an old age, you will get your full share of opportunities, which will be two in total, maybe, but seize one of the two, and you will be alright.

On banking – Banking is a very peculiar business. The temptations to do something stupid are way greater for a bank CEO. Banks are a dangerous place to invest. There are a lot of ways to make the near-term future look good by taking risks that affect long term future. There are a few exceptions. Berkshire tries to pick a few exceptions as best we can when we look at banks. I haven’t anything more to say except that I am right.

On overvaluation of Google, Facebook, Apple and Amazon – I don’t know. Next question.

On money management (Peter Kaufman) – I call them the five aces: (1) total integrity, (2)

Read more at https://www.safalniveshak.com/charlie-munger-bitcoins-banking-life

February 17, 2018

NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up on weekly charts
- support 10000

- note 200 DMA on daily charts is around 10100

BANK NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is up on weekly charts
- support 23800

February 16, 2018

Swing trading signals :: 16-FEB-2018

Swing trading signals :: 16-FEB-2018

  • This report is for educational purposes only and is not recommended for trading or investment.
  • Liquidity filter: ||||| excellent liquidity - ||||| good liquidity - ||||| low liquidity.

Stock nameClosePercentage ChangeSignalReversal
Level/ SL
Last Month's
1 day20 daysHighLow
||||| ABAN173.70-2.00%-29.00%SELL254.95281200
||||| ALLCARGO175.70-2.50%-13.50%SELL207.50229191
||||| ALPHAGEO815.60-2.00%-12.00%SELL985.001054891
||||| BANKINDIA130.45-2.00%-20.50%SELL183.25183155
||||| BIRLACORPN967.55-2.00%-19.00%SELL1222.3012661073
||||| COLPAL1076.55-1.00%-5.50%SELL1174.0011741085
||||| DENABANK21.35-2.50%-16.50%SELL27.852825
||||| DLINKINDIA107.25-2.50%-22.00%SELL141.30154123
||||| GLENMARK521.00-1.50%-17.00%SELL647.00647583
||||| GOLDBEES2763.400.50%2.00%BUY2675.0527452631
||||| GVKPIL17.85-4.50%-26.00%SELL25.452818
||||| HGS872.10-3.00%-4.50%SELL1037.801015868
||||| KWALITY85.35-3.00%-17.50%SELL108.0011997
||||| MAHABANK18.45-1.50%-14.50%SELL22.702519
||||| MFSL500.75-3.00%-9.50%SELL559.95605515
||||| MOTHERSUMI326.75-4.00%-14.50%SELL388.80390360
||||| PRABHAT174.60-2.50%-21.00%SELL241.05254208
||||| SBIN271.65-2.50%-11.50%SELL332.75333293
||||| SYNDIBANK59.55-3.00%-25.50%SELL83.508472
||||| TEJASNET348.90-0.50%-17.50%SELL453.45472370
||||| UBL1010.40-2.50%-10.50%SELL1243.0011991021
||||| UNICHEMLAB336.65-2.50%-6.50%SELL380.50382323
||||| YESBANK311.80-2.50%-8.50%SELL367.25366307

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.9% in negative at 10452
- AD was 1:5
- note strong resistance developing around 10600
- retest of recent lows quite possible
- expecting support around 10200 and then 10000

Triangle on hourly charts

- there is a triangle of 300 points on nifty hourly charts
- breakout levels are 10635 and 10500 F
- breakout target is 10900 or 10200 F

New Anti-Competitive Measures Impacting the Indian Equity Market

MSCI Inc. (NYSE: MSCI), a leading provider of research-based indexes and analytics, announced today that it is closely monitoring developments related to the concerted announcement by three Indian stock exchanges, including the two principal exchanges, of the imposition of anti-competitive measures restricting the accessibility of the Indian equity market.
MSCI is evaluating the measures’ potential impact on existing financial products and the future accessibility of the Indian equity market for international institutional investors more generally.
In a clearly negative development for the accessibility of the Indian equity market for international institutional investors, the exchanges’ announcement made on February 9, 2018 would impose, following the expiration of contractual notice periods, a set of restrictions on the use of traded price data inconsistent with the practices of any other market in MSCI’s Emerging Markets Index series and could result in an unprecedented disruption of trading in financial products in markets around the world.
Based on the exchanges’ press release, we understand that the exchanges do not seek to impose a precipitous or disorderly wind down of the various products that would be affected in many markets around the world.
Nonetheless, given the breadth of the application of the changes referred to in the announcement, we believe that if the changes are put into effect, the result will be disruptive and harmful to international institutional investors in Indian equities whether accessing the market onshore or offshore.
MSCI strongly suggests the Indian exchanges and their regulator, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), reconsider this unprecedented anti-competitive action before it leads to any unnecessary disruptions in trading or a potential change in the market classification of the Indian market in the MSCI Indexes.
Source: https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/804c4e20-77d0-4b57-8838-e3dc02af14da and alphaideas.in

Nifty can Bounce Sharply towards 10759-10829 Very Soon

Nifty opened higher at 10537, registered low 10518 and bounced sharply to register day’s high 10618 but failed to sustain at higher levels and declined back to register day’s low 10511 and finally closed 44 points up at 10545.

Yesterday, personality of the bounce from low was not suggesting any bigger reversal for new high and possibility of one more low below 10276 was still there in coming days from present levels or from 10637-10829.

For short term, 10498 was breakeven point and minimum bounce till 10590 was expected which further can extend towards 10637-10829. Buying was suggested with stoploss of 10477 (some points below 10498) expecting minimum target 10590 which further can extend towards 10637-10829. Nifty registered high 10618 without breaking below breakeven point. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

Read more at http://sweeglu.com/nifty-can-bounce-sharply-towards-10759-10829-very-soon/

February 15, 2018

Hot stocks and charts

Hot stocks

LAST updated: 15-FEB-2018 
ALBK chart

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is down on daily charts
- NF today closed 0.4% in positive at 10545
- but AD was negative at 1:3
- in fact AD was nefact even when nifty ws near day's high
- VIX down 5% ... cannot make sense of this
- option writing support 10500-10000

- close above 10600 spot can be bullish for next week.

February 14, 2018

No More Lies: An Ultimatum for India's Banks

For the RBI, the banking regulator, the time to frown from the sidelines is over. U.S. 10-year yields are inching up toward the 3 percent danger zone. India's own 10-year government yields are about 7.5 percent -- a full point higher than in July. State-run Indian lenders, which dominate the banking system, are badly exposed to interest-rate risk because of their outsized government bond holdings. 

Hence the decisive step. Under the new RBI guidelines, delinquent loans above $300 million will have to be resolved with the borrower within 180 days. If there's no action, the debtor must be dragged to a bankruptcy tribunal within 15 days.

That's goodbye to things like Corporate Debt Restructuring (CDR), Strategic Debt Restructuring (SDR) and Scheme for Sustainable Structuring of Stressed Assets (S4A). These were all regulator-sanctioned plans that allowed taxpayer-funded banks to take haircuts without the fear that their CEOs could be hauled to jail on charges of collusion with debtors. Some of these measures were introduced by the previous RBI governor, Raghuram Rajan.

Read more at https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/2018/02/13/no-more-lies-an-ultimatum-for-india-s-banks

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.4% in negative at 10500
- AD was slightly negative
- VIX down 4%

May the bull be with you

February 13, 2018

February 12, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed 0.8% in positive at 10540
- AD was 4:1
- VIX dropped 7%
- option writing support 10500-10000

Close your eyes while riding the roller coaster

February 11, 2018

Ed Seykota: Everyone gets what they want from the market

Some people win by losing.

Some people win by winning.

Win or lose, everybody gets what they want from the market.

Put in different words... A losing trader can do little to transform himself into a winning trader. A losing trader is not going to want to transform himself. That’s the kind of thing winning traders do.

Transforming yourself calls for a huge effort... why do this effort when you can easily blame your problems on someone else?

Show me one losing trader who has been able to transform himself... I know less than 1% who have been able to do so.

The losers are committing the same mistakes they did years ago...no strategy, no risk management, maintaining no trading journals, watching TV, following social media  etc

Does anyone remember what Arun Jaitley demanded in 2014 about IT slabs?

Is this the same guy who is our FM now?

If yes, why is he not doing what he demanded 4 years ago?

This is called politics...

Source: http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/raise-it-slab-to-rs-5-lakh-says-jaitley/article5931663.ece

How President Trump Changed Your Imagination and Why the Golden Age Starts Now

Do you remember when candidate Trump told us (in effect) that he would be the first non-politician to win the presidency? It seemed impossible to even imagine such a thing. Then he did the impossible.

Do you remember when it was common wisdom that if the U.S. recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel it would be a huge problem? President Trump did it anyway. So far, it looks like a minor problem at most.

Do you remember when experts said President Trump shouldn’t mess with the Iran nuclear deal because it could cause a huge problem for the United States and its allies? He did it anyway, and it is likely a supporting variable for the Iranian protestors who don’t like how their government is creating problems that don’t need to be problems.

Do you remember when experts said China will never help squeeze the economy of North Korea because China fears a refugee crisis? President Trump encouraged China to squeeze anyway. Then he helpfully provided satellite photos of tankers cheating on the high seas. After South Korea grabbed and held a second cheating tanker, the economics of smuggling oil have turned negative, or will soon. And North Korea is sounding — at least to my ears — more flexible than ever.

Do you remember when it was common wisdom that we couldn’t put enough pressure on Pakistan to make them stop harboring terrorists because Pakistan is also an ally in many ways? President Trump just cut off their funding and put them on notice.

Do you remember when experts said withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accord would be a catastrophe? President Trump did it anyway because he didn’t like the deal. I’ve seen no indication that exiting the deal made the climate worse. Here I’m only talking about the quality of the Accord and what little impact it would have had in the best case scenario.

The big wildcard in our many “impossibles” has to do with the tax bill and the deficit. Experts say it is impossible to get enough growth from the tax bill to pay for the deficit. But the experts are blind to the persuasion of it all. If President Trump persuades the economy higher, let’s say to 5-6% GDP, there’s a good chance he will accomplish the impossible once again and pay for those tax cuts. The tax cuts alone won’t get us to that GDP, but as part of a larger package of persuasion-by-optimism, it is strong sauce.

The meta-impact of President Trump routinely doing the “impossible” is that it changes how all of us view our world. If Trump can keep doing the impossible, time and time again, why can’t we?

Sometimes things are literally impossible. But much of the time we are only limited by our imaginations. Many of us simply couldn’t imagine that a number of the things President Trump has done would work out well. These were not simple surprises; these were failures of our imagination.

In 2015 I told you that candidate Trump would change far more than politics. I said he would change how we understand reality itself. And one of those biggest changes is in the scope of our imaginations. One year ago it was hard for me to imagine Saudi Arabia taking a sudden turn toward modernization. One year ago it was hard for me to imagine an uprising in Iran that could reshape its destiny. I assume it was hard for the Iranian public to imagine it as well. But they sure are imagining it now.

President Trump isn’t the only variable in the world. But he does create a pattern in our minds of making the impossible seem achievable. Don’t underestimate the impact that pattern has on the imaginations of everyone watching.

And don’t be surprised if 2018 is the year when people all over the world shed their mental prisons and take on the “impossibles” in ways we have never seen. Thanks to President Trump, people everywhere are beginning to recognize the difference between real impossibilities and simple failures of imagination.

Welcome to The Golden Age. It starts now.

Source: http://blog.dilbert.com/2018/01/02/president-trump-changed-imagination/

February 10, 2018

Pick your Poison

The S&P 500 fell officially into correction territory on Thursday, down more than 10 percent from its record reached in January.

 Rosenberg noted how the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose 16 basis points during the drop.
“I cannot tell you how rare a market condition this is – that yields are rising into this risk pullback,” he wrote in a note to clients Friday.

Rosenberg cited how bonds rallied during the financial crisis in 2008 when the market fell and during other big corrections.

“But not this time. This rare occurrence of bond yields rising even as stock markets decline was a feature in 1987 and 1994,” he added. “What these periods had in common was Fed tightening concerns, jitters over economic overheating and an ever-flatter yield curve. One of these years had a huge correction and one had massive volatility and rolling corrections. Pick your poison.”-from CNBC

Source: http://alphaideas.in/

Why human beings cannot think rationally

Most of us like to ourselves as good at decision making and rational thinking. At the same time, we tend to hold opinions of other people and consider our views as correct while having no evidence to show.

We like to think we're rational human beings whereas we are not.

In reality, we are prone to hundreds of proven biases that cause us to think and act irrationally, and even thinking we're rational despite evidence of irrationality in others is known as blind spot bias.

Here are some biases which affect our ability to think rationally.

Read more at https://www.businessinsider.in/58-cognitive-biases-that-screw-up-everything-we-do/Conservatism-bias/slideshow/49586541.cms

NIFTY 200 DMA is around 10000

NIFTY weekly technicals

- trend is up
- breakout from triangle fails
- good support 10000

BANK NIFTY weekly technicals

- trend is up
- support 23800
- holding above 26000 will be bullish

February 9, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is down on daily charts
- gap down opening but 10300 holds
- today, NF closed 1% in negative at 10455
- AD was flat

- swing low support 10000

NIFTY intraday update

Despite bad global clues, NF is trading only 1.5% in negative and has not broken the low formed on 6-FEB.

The AD was 1:6 initially is now 1:2 - big improvement.

Here is the hourly chart.

February 8, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is down on daily charts
- today, NF closed 0.9% in positive at 10577
- close was not at day's high
- AD was 6:1
- option writing support 10500-10000
- VIX down 9%

Open challenge to the Fin Sec who believes making money in the market requires no effort

February 7, 2018

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is down on daily charts
- today NF closed flat at 10477
- AD was positive at 4:1
- VIX down 3%

- option writing support 10000

CNX Midcap index takes support at NOV/ DEC lows

CNX Smallcap index breaks NOV/ DEC lows

Capital gains don't accrue from any EFFORT...says Finance secretary Adhia

What you can control in trading

CLSA NIFTY target 12000

History will likely record the 13.5% correction in $DJIA as great buying opportunity

History will likely record the 13.5% correction in as great buying opportunity, although outside chance of new lows before big turn up

Why the reasons the market fell is immaterial and irrelevant for traders

It’s human nature to want an explanation for market falls, and for why our investments are worth less today than they were last week. We instinctively want to feel a sense of control. It’s why investors are so susceptible at times likes this to succumb to the temptation to act, or to be taken in by product providers for whom such episodes make perfect selling opportunities. But the truth is that nobody really knows why markets plummeted, or indeed what will happen next. And, for evidence-based investors, it really doesn’t matter.

February 6, 2018

Fewer sell signals

Stock nameClose% Ch20 Day Swing IndicatorLast Month'sRSI
TrendDatePriceReturn %ReversalHighLow5 D14 D
||||| ABCAPITAL158.90-3.50%SELL06/12/17186.6514.87188.001891701423
||||| ADFFOODS240.05-7.00%SELL16/01/18290.7017.42318.003222581222
||||| ANDHRSUGAR497.65-11.00%SELL06/02/18497.650.00715.00715517728
||||| APTECHT253.75-7.00%SELL18/01/18351.9527.90386.00386301616
||||| ASIAN PAINTS1110.25-2.00%SELL30/01/181126.701.461208.00120811232335
||||| ASTRA MICRO104.35-3.00%SELL24/01/18112.807.49128.001291111733
||||| ATLANTA93.45-5.50%SELL30/01/18108.7014.03131.70132108525
||||| BAJAJ AUTO3135.10-1.50%SELL06/02/183135.100.003468.00340531402539
||||| BEPL159.60-4.50%SELL29/01/18175.809.22217.002181642135
||||| BLS179.10-5.50%SELL18/01/18234.5023.62293.002931971422
||||| BRITANNIA4530.45-1.50%SELL06/02/184530.450.004786.00478646012338
||||| CEAT TYRES1504.35-7.00%SELL22/01/181837.8518.152019.00201917991324
||||| CHENNPETRO362.65-3.50%SELL25/01/18419.6513.58464.00464410723
||||| CIPLA564.25-2.50%SELL13/12/17578.152.40631.006315901028
||||| CONCOR1300.45-3.00%SELL02/02/181337.702.781500.00150013451333
||||| FCL61.40-4.50%SELL30/01/1866.357.4698.50106642038
||||| GAYAPROJ190.80-4.50%SELL06/02/18190.800.00224.002392001430
||||| GHCL283.80-5.50%SELL31/01/18308.658.05357.003573041935
||||| GIC HSG FIN388.90-3.00%SELL02/02/18408.054.69496.004964131127
||||| GITANJALI54.90-8.50%SELL24/01/1866.4517.3883.3083651226
||||| GLENMARK PHARMA571.30-3.00%SELL06/02/18571.300.00647.006475831433
||||| GODFRYPHLP850.05-4.00%SELL25/01/18962.7511.711080.001080917417
||||| GOODLUCK101.10-5.00%SELL06/02/18101.100.00142.00142891339
||||| GPPL134.10-3.00%SELL06/02/18134.100.00168.001681341234
||||| GVKPIL18.70-4.50%SELL06/02/1818.700.0027.8528182340
||||| HINDOILEXP111.75-5.50%SELL31/01/18126.8511.90153.001531261130
||||| HINDUSTAN UNILEVER1325.35-2.00%SELL06/02/181325.350.001410.00141013291939
||||| IDBI57.00-5.50%SELL06/02/1857.000.0070.0070583241
||||| IDEA85.00-2.50%SELL24/01/1893.909.48113.2511991828
||||| IEX1540.70-2.00%SELL06/02/181540.700.001677.00167715751132
||||| INDIAGLYCO408.60-7.00%SELL02/02/18455.4010.28589.005894371131
||||| KSCL456.05-4.50%SELL30/01/18487.056.36540.005554751928
||||| KARNATAKA BANK132.65-3.50%SELL29/01/18149.5511.30169.00169146625
||||| LALPATHLAB869.60-2.00%SELL06/02/18869.600.00930.009308732138
||||| LEEL259.20-3.50%SELL31/01/18273.455.21314.003152701630
||||| LINCOLN214.35-4.50%SELL06/02/18214.350.00274.002752201836
||||| LUPIN800.90-5.50%SELL01/02/18860.406.92970.00970870925
||||| MIRCELECTR46.15-4.50%SELL17/01/1850.107.8859.8060471937
||||| NMDC127.80-3.50%SELL31/01/18140.308.91158.001631371331
||||| ONGC185.45-1.50%SELL06/02/18185.450.00212.002131921436
||||| PATEL ENG64.55-6.50%SELL30/01/1875.4514.4593.709474924
||||| PRABHAT181.00-5.50%SELL02/02/18197.558.38242.002542081131
||||| PRAJ INDUSTRIES91.70-4.50%SELL30/01/18105.9013.41131.50132104627
||||| PRESTIGE288.45-4.50%SELL06/02/18288.450.00356.003573021833
||||| PRISMCEM121.85-3.50%SELL06/02/18121.850.00159.001591122039
||||| QUESS937.85-4.00%SELL31/01/18984.254.711167.0011959482134
||||| RAJESHEXPO800.25-2.00%SELL06/02/18800.250.00874.008748021138
||||| RUSHIL857.10-7.00%SELL06/02/18857.100.001080.0010818961331
||||| SHK280.75-4.00%SELL06/02/18280.750.00313.003142811640
||||| SIEMENS1256.00-1.00%SELL06/02/181256.000.001336.00133212272643
||||| SUDARSCHEM399.65-4.00%SELL06/02/18399.650.00484.004843761938
||||| SUNTECK378.35-6.00%SELL15/01/18397.754.88450.004353891933
||||| SYNDICATE BANK63.45-4.00%SELL30/01/1873.1013.2083.5084721127
||||| TANLA30.00-4.00%SELL24/01/1836.7018.2647.204733929
||||| TATA MOTORS375.45-5.00%SELL24/01/18403.606.97443.004443952530
||||| TATA MOTORS DVR208.55-4.50%SELL24/01/18231.009.72261.002622231724
||||| THERMAX1152.80-3.50%SELL06/02/181152.800.001360.00136011812236
||||| THYROCARE645.55-4.50%SELL02/02/18670.253.69724.007246801731
||||| TIRUMALCHM1786.60-4.00%SELL30/01/182043.9012.592440.00244019831329
||||| TITAN782.65-2.00%SELL01/02/18831.005.82938.00938841828
||||| V2RETAIL373.80-7.00%SELL22/01/18447.8516.53504.005054141120
||||| VIVIMEDLAB75.40-5.50%SELL30/10/17121.0537.71108.7510984515
||||| WABAG543.30-4.50%SELL01/02/18590.257.95648.006496041326
||||| WELENT149.20-7.00%SELL01/02/18167.1010.71197.00198168930
||||| WIPRO294.65-1.00%SELL01/02/18300.752.03334.003343021035
||||| ZEE ENTERTAINMENT571.75-1.50%SELL06/02/18571.750.00619.006195752140
66 rows
Av return = 7.14