August 13, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1.7% in negative at 10925
- AD was 1:2 (not bad)
- 160 stocks made new 52 week lows (good sign as number usually is 500+)

- there was a hint of correction when markets did not close near day;s high Friday

- today we had a big bar
- this usually means expect correction to continue
- but I said trend is up 2 days ago on 8-AUG (11032)
- now SL is 10800 spot for this notional trade
- in hindsight, correct swing high should have been 11200 and not 11000

- will 10800 break?
- if 10800 breaks, will 10000 be visited?
- what if this is the last leg of the correction? hint...market breadth

- VIX up 14%
- this might mean more pain?

- today RELIANCE was up 10% on good news
- this stock is an index heavyweight and weight is 9%
- if this stock was flat today, index would have been down another 190 points
- try the nifty replica to see how heavyweights influence index

- USDINR is playing havoc with the market - https://www.tradingview.com/x/Yp2HizJh/





3 min charts:
- sold 11100 calls in circled area in expectation of rangebound market
- bought 11000 PE as per arrow (range breakout)
- trade qtty was small as 11000 F was very near and a whipsaw was possible



15 min charts:



Same chart with supertrend indicator from https://chartink.com/stocks/nifty.html

I am posting this one time only... you can visit the above site and use the charts. Sorry I will not be able to provide any help.



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