December 4, 2018

2018 till Now – Random Portfolio down 20-40%. Market Returns are not Linear !!

Random Portfolio – 2018

We have been doing Random Portfolio exercises for the last few years. We started looking at this interesting topic almost 3 years back and could make a template with the help of my friend Prashant Krish and now my team mate Harsh Doshi does the iterations for the last couple of years.

Every time we have a fantastic year we do this exercise to tone down the emotions which come along with a great year. This time after a bad year this exercise is a consolation that the market has been bad for many.

Random Portfolio Selection Filter

•The only filter was stock should be above 10 rs and listed on NSE. ( to remove unusual big movers or duds )

•25 stocks selected randomly ( rand between function) with an equal weightage of 4%.

•Time Period – Last 6 months and Year to Date.

•No shuffling of stocks. Just buy and hold.

•No brokerage applied.

We created 5 random portfolios on the above selection criteria.

Lets look at returns of Random Portfolio for YTD 2018
01-01-2018
28-11-2018
Portfolio
Initial Equity
End Equity
%  Returns
Random Portfolio 1
1000000
648578
-35.14%
Random Portfolio 2
1000000
611148
-38.89%
Random Portfolio 3
1000000
653878
-34.61%
Random Portfolio 4
1000000
688377
-31.16%
Random Portfolio 5
1000000
763675
-23.63%
Average Returns (%)

-32.7%

Read more at http://www.nooreshtech.co.in/2018/12/2018-till-now-random-portfolio-down-20-40-market-returns-are-not-linear.html

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